Fake Electors Scheme ... Productivity ... Jobless Claims ... Factory Orders ... ISM Non Manufacturing Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” - Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
THE FAKE ELECTORS SCHEME (NY Times)
“The brazen plan to create false slates of electors pledged to former President Donald J. Trump in seven swing states that were actually won by Joseph R. Biden Jr. was arguably the longest-running and most expansive of the multiple efforts by Mr. Trump and his allies to overturn the results of the 2020 election. It was also one of the most confusing, involving a sprawling cast of pro-Trump lawyers, state Republican officials and White House aides in an effort that began before some states had even finished counting their ballots.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/us/politics/fake-electors-explained-trump-jan-6.html
My cmt: Interesting article on the background of falsifying electoral college electors in the Nixon-Kennedy election (Nixon certified the Kennedy Hawaii slate after a recount) and how the Trump team attempted to subvert the 2020 election.
 
REACTIONS TO TRUMP INDICTMENT FOLLOW THE SCRIPT (WSJ)
“The new charges divided the GOP field running against Trump for the 2024 nomination, while triggering key Republicans on Capitol Hill to rally to the former president’s side.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/indict-rally-repeat-reactions-to-latest-trump-charges-follow-familiar-script-ba3ffe1
My cmt: There are “key republicans” in Congress who are implicated in attempting to give then Vice President Pence false electoral college votes on January 6.  It remains to be seen if they will be charged in the conspiracy to subvert the electoral college.
 
PRODUCTIVITY (Baton Rouge Business Report)
U.S. worker productivity rebounded sharply in the second quarter, helping to curb growth in labor costs and offering another boost to the improving inflation outlook...” Story at...
https://www.businessreport.com/business/us-worker-productivity-rebounds-after-months-of-decline
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (The Hill)
“Claims rose to 227,000 for the week ending July 29, up 6,000 from the previous week. At the same time, U.S. employers cut just 23,697 jobs in July, the lowest number in 11 months, according to employment research firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas.” Story at...
https://thehill.com/newsletters/business-economy/4136666-jobless-claims-tick-up/
 
FACTORY ORDERS (rttnews)
“The Commerce Department said factory orders spiked by 2.3 percent in June after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in May.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3381744/u-s-factory-orders-surge-slightly-more-than-expected-in-june.aspx
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX (YahooFinance)
“A key gauge of U.S. economic activity showed business was still robust in February, but suggested that companies are fast losing their pricing power as inflation squeezes household and corporate budgets. The non-manufacturing index compiled by the Institute of Supply Management inched down to 55.1 from 55.2 in January but remained well above the 50 level that typically separates growth from contraction.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-still-105054492.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 4502.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 15.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.178.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 6.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 397-days.
The S&P 500 is 10% ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 2.3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF.
 
SHY – Short term bonds.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much new today. A lot of indicators reversed to neutral or bearish Thursday.  Friday’s summary of indicators will be interesting. We still expect a routine pullback to the lower trend line.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from -6 to -8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -5 to -19. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. A pullback is needed to bring the markets back into balance.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.