Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
TEAM OBAMA’S THIRD TERM IN THE WHITE HOUSE HAS BEEN A
DISASTER AND AN INSULT TO BRITAIN (The Telegraph – a British Newspaper,
est.1855)
“It is no coincidence that both Joe Biden and Barack
Obama began their presidencies by unceremoniously throwing the same bust of
Winston Churchill out of the Oval Office...both Obama and Biden advanced
presidencies that have been the antithesis of practically everything Churchill
stood for as Britain’s great wartime saviour. They are two of the weakest
leaders in American history, who have done more to promote America’s decline
than any president in the modern era, including Jimmy Carter. They clearly
could not stand the sight of Churchill watching over them, as they did all they
could to tear apart the US/UK Special Relationship and drag down the world’s
superpower.” Story at...
Team
Obama’s third term in the White House has been a disaster and an insult to
Britain (msn.com)
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased
by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Aug. 19...” Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-claims-fall-labor-123816711.html
DURABLE ORDERS (rttnews)
“With aircraft demand pulling back sharply following
recent strength, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing
new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods tumbled by more than expected in
the month of July. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by
5.2 percent in July after surging by a revised 4.4 percent in June.” Story
at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3386219/u-s-durable-goods-orders-plunge-5-2-in-july-amid-sharp-pullback-in-aircraft-demand.aspx
My cmt: If you ignore Boeing, Durable Orders were up.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 1.4% to 4376.
-VIX slipped about 8% to 17.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.241
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 412-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday.)
SPY – I bought the S&P 500 Friday in my 401k (it has
limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF.
(I’ll sell this in a hurry if the Index falls.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I added SSO (2x S&P 500 ETF) as a trade today. If I
had been a little more patient, I might have waited until the end of the day. Today
was an ugly day. The S&P 500 peaked
around 11 am and fell the rest of the day to finish below Thursday’s close. Not very encouraging.
Many of the parameters that I follow, such as volume,
breadth, charts, etc., are either oversold or close, suggesting that markets
may be due for a bounce. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean the index can’t fall
further. On a positive note, Thursday was a statistically significant down-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time.
While the pundits guessed about the cause of today’s
swoon, it may be as simple as worry over the ongoing Fed meeting. We’ll find
out tomorrow when the Fed meeting concludes and Chairman Powell gives his press
conference. 2 pm is the witching hour.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from -4 to -9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -54 to -57.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VIX is bearish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are
neutral. There are still a lot of oversold signs suggesting markets may be in
the vicinity of an oversold bottom.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
