“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Another interest rate hike is still on the table, according to federal reserve officials. The newly-released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 25-26 meeting show that while some officials were prepared to continue June's interest rates hike pause, members continue to view inflation as a threat and are willing to hike rates further to address it.” Story at...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/16/fed-reserve-meeting-minutes-rate-hike-inflation/70605107007/
My cmt: well that’s a surprising piece of bad news.
“Housing starts rose 3.9% last month to an annual rate of 1.45 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released Wednesday. That is slightly above Refinitiv economists' forecast... Applications to build – which measures future construction – also inched higher, climbing 0.1% over the course of the month...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-rise-more-expected-july-despite-rising-mortgage-rates
“In July, total industrial production increased 1.0% following declines in the previous two months, according to the Federal Reserve... total industrial production in July was 0.2% below its year-earlier level.” Story at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/industrial-production-rose-10-in-july
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 439.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 4404.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283
-Drop from Top: 8.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 405-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
Utilities were bought today along with Consumer Staples (another defensive sector) and Materials, an inflation protector. All other sectors were down. Apparently, some fear is creeping into the mix.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)