Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
According to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey of 1,636 U.S. adults,
which was in the field from Sept. 14 to 18, Biden and Trump would now tie at 44% apiece
among registered voters if the 2024 election were held today. Another
7% remain undecided, while 4% say they would not vote.” From...
Bad
news for Biden in new Yahoo News/YouGov poll (msn.com)
“A new poll by CBS News published on Sunday shows former
US President Donald Trump receiving more votes than incumbent President Joe
Biden in the 2024 election.”
From...
Donald
Trump beats US President Joe Biden in new 2024 election poll (msn.com)
My cmt: It is bad news if either of these 2 get elected.
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Fox Business)
“New U.S. home construction dropped in August to the
lowest level since 2020, underscoring the ongoing challenges facing the housing
market. Housing starts tumbled 11.3% last month to an annual rate
of 1.28 million units... Applications to build – which measures future
construction – saw an uptick in August, climbing 6.9% over the course of the
month...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-unexpectedly-plummet-lowest-level-2020
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 4444.
-VIX rose about 1% to 14.11.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.363%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 429-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.9%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Here we go again. Tomorrow is FED Day with the Fed
announcement on interest rates. Nothing
special is expected since it is a near certainty that there will be no interest
rate hike. The unknown seems to be, will
there be a clue about future rate hikes?
Indicators continue to slip and the 50-dMA of issues advancing
on the NYSE dipped below 50% today. 3 days in a row below 50% is my “correction
now” signal. While it is not aways right, it does show weakness in Breadth.
Another Breadth indicator, the McClellan Oscillator has only been above zero 1
day in the last 2 weeks. It is based on the difference between advancing issues
and declining issues. It is reflecting poor breadth in the market too.
I said yesterday, “Indicators were more to the Bear side,
but Breadth is still holding up so no need to panic.” That may have been
premature – as noted today, Breadth is slipping. Let’s hope we’re at a bottom.
Utilities sold off more than double the S&P 500 today
so that may be a tell that the Pros are setting up for bullish action
ahead.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
from -6 to -7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -24 to -35.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remains
HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a Bull – still waiting for a resumption
of the bull move.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
