NAHB Housing Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Polls and interviews leave little doubt that most voters
don't want an octogenarian president for four more years — or his criminally
challenged predecessor. Yet, as of today, that's what voters likely face: Joe
Biden vs Donald Trump. It would be one of the darkest races in memory...
...I have covered presidential politics for more than
half a century, and Trump is the only candidate that I think poses an
existential threat to Democracy. This isn't ideological: Ronald Reagan and
others were far more conservative on economic, social, and national security
matters. Trump has said — and shown — that he simply doesn't believe in
democracy and that the Constitution should be ignored, if necessary, to give him
the presidency.” - Al Hunt, former Washington executive editor of Bloomberg
News. From...
Can’t
Escape the Feeling There Are Very Dark Days Ahead for America Politically - The
Messenger
“A new poll by CBS News published on Sunday shows former
US President Donald Trump receiving more votes than incumbent President Joe
Biden in the 2024 election.”
-
Donald
Trump beats US President Joe Biden in new 2024 election poll (msn.com)
“Living near the Mexican border, I am running low on
sympathy for New Yorkers (“New York’s Migrant Meltdown,” WSJ, Review & Outlook, Sept.
8). We certainly got none from them before our governor, Greg Abbott, started
busing our “guests” up there. Frankly, I’m glad Mr. Abbott’s mommy taught him
to share.” - Hal
Dantone, Kingsville, Texas, WSJ letters
The Moon is Slowly Moving Away From the Earth: Here's
Why We Should Be Concerned...
The above “headline” is totally bogus. The article
states: “Will the moon drift off till it slips away from the Earth's
gravitational influence?...no. The moon will stop its movement when it reaches
an equilibrium. Then, we won't have to worry about any further shifts or the
loss of the earth’s only satellite.”
My cmt: Worry? I don’t’ know about you, but I haven’t
been losing sleep over this issue.
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (fxempire)
“The report indicated that higher interest rates
continued to put pressure on the housing market activity. The rates on 30-year
mortgages have settled above the 7.00% level, which is bearish for the housing
market. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 99.0% probability that Fed will
leave the federal funds rate unchanged on Wednesday. However, traders believe
that there is a 35.4% probability of an additional rate hike by the end of the
year.” Story at...
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/nahb-housing-market-index-pulled-back-to-april-lows-1375347
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4454.
-VIX rose about 2% to 14.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.309%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 427-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.7%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I’m still looking at the 50-dMA as a tell for the
markets. The Index closed below its 50-dMA again, so we’re still waiting for
some good news there.
Indicators were more to the Bear side, but Breadth is still
holding up so no need to panic.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
-6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -8 to -24. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remains
HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a Bull, paying close attention to the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
