“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“When the primary [stock market] trend flips [as was
signaled 46 calendar days ago], good things tend to happen for a long period of
time...the 1 to 10 year outlook is highly favorable.” – Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco
Capital.
Regarding Global Warming: “Going forward, we predict the
temperature will go up [but]... the US is only 13 percent of global emissions.
And even if we went to zero, it would be wiped out by the growth in the rest of
the world within a decade.” - Steven Koonin, PhD.
DISNEY MAKES A STRONG CHARGE AGAINST DeSANTIS (The
Street)
“The Republican candidate for president has taken a defiant attitude toward science and common sense in order to build his image as a younger, more rational version of Donald Trump. DeSantis has gone against doctors when it came to vaccines and masks in order to pander to his base and keep Florida open for business during the Covid pandemic. You can argue that while his stance on Covid protocols was a pro-business one as it did keep businesses open, even if the cost was paid in people's lives. [my emphasis]” – Daniel Kline, Arena Group Editor at Large. Story at...
https://www.thestreet.com/travel/walt-disney-makes-a-strong-charge-against-desantis
My cmt: I don’t care who you vote for, and DeSantis is not my favorite candidate, but I hate liars, and this article is misleading at best. In fact, Florida performed better than most states during the Covid pandemic...
...“[For]...Covid-associated deaths... Florida outperformed New York. According to the most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, Florida had 78,642 total deaths, while New York had 80,568...On the more relevant, age-adjusted metric published by the CDC, New York has the 17th highest cumulative Covid-associated death rate, while Florida is down at 36th.” – WSJ
FACTORY ORDERS (forex live)
“US July factory orders -2.1% vs -2.5% expected
-First decline after four consecutive increases” Story at...
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-factory-orders-21-vs-25-expected-20230905/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4505.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.261%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 6.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 419-days.
The S&P 500 is 8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5. Caterpillar is the #1 momentum play on the Dow, but I am suspicious of their earnings.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Friday summary of indicators was an extremely bullish zero-bear and 22-bull. I can’t remember ever having no bearish indicators on a Friday. Today, there were a few bear signs, but Goldilocks had not eaten any porridge yet, so all appears to be well for markets. However, it is a concern to see a down-day at the beginning of the month. Usually, the first of the month is up due to automatic 401k investments.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +10 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +15 to +23. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE & SENTIMENT are Bullish; VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: Given the indicators, I am Bullish. “Looking
good, Billy Ray! Feeling good, Louis!”
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“The Republican candidate for president has taken a defiant attitude toward science and common sense in order to build his image as a younger, more rational version of Donald Trump. DeSantis has gone against doctors when it came to vaccines and masks in order to pander to his base and keep Florida open for business during the Covid pandemic. You can argue that while his stance on Covid protocols was a pro-business one as it did keep businesses open, even if the cost was paid in people's lives. [my emphasis]” – Daniel Kline, Arena Group Editor at Large. Story at...
https://www.thestreet.com/travel/walt-disney-makes-a-strong-charge-against-desantis
My cmt: I don’t care who you vote for, and DeSantis is not my favorite candidate, but I hate liars, and this article is misleading at best. In fact, Florida performed better than most states during the Covid pandemic...
...“[For]...Covid-associated deaths... Florida outperformed New York. According to the most recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, Florida had 78,642 total deaths, while New York had 80,568...On the more relevant, age-adjusted metric published by the CDC, New York has the 17th highest cumulative Covid-associated death rate, while Florida is down at 36th.” – WSJ
“US July factory orders -2.1% vs -2.5% expected
-First decline after four consecutive increases” Story at...
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-factory-orders-21-vs-25-expected-20230905/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4505.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.261%.
-Drop from Top: 6.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 419-days.
The S&P 500 is 8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5. Caterpillar is the #1 momentum play on the Dow, but I am suspicious of their earnings.
The Friday summary of indicators was an extremely bullish zero-bear and 22-bull. I can’t remember ever having no bearish indicators on a Friday. Today, there were a few bear signs, but Goldilocks had not eaten any porridge yet, so all appears to be well for markets. However, it is a concern to see a down-day at the beginning of the month. Usually, the first of the month is up due to automatic 401k investments.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +10 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +15 to +23. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
