CPI ... EIA Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“In the latest polls, Biden and Trump are virtually tied,
but most other GOP candidates beat Biden.” Michael Ramirez. Political
commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-essay-polling-the?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
“I don’t think Biden and Vice President Harris should run
for reelection. It’s painful to say that, given my admiration for much of what
they have accomplished, but if he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think
Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement — which was stopping Trump.” -
David Ignatius, Washington Post Columnist.
My cmt: In other words, if Biden runs, he may lose.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Ford was supposed to be able to build 600,000 electric
vehicles (EVs) this year. Then, it wasn’t. The date was pushed back to the end
of 2024. Now, Ford may be unable to sell all those EVs, even if it hits that
production number. Too few people want an F-150 Lightning, Ford’s electric
flagship.” Story at...
Ford’s
EV Plan in Trouble (msn.com)
“The problem with EVs was
once limited supply, but it has now become demand.
In the U.S., EVs are
sitting on dealer lots for far longer than their gas-powered
counterparts and piling up as buyers mostly continue to overlook fully-electric
cars, as Axios reports...people
are still worried about charging and the pricing of EVs.” Story at...
https://jalopnik.com/no-one-in-the-us-really-wants-to-buy-electric-vehicles-1850622254
My cmt: Even with significant give-aways (tax breaks) by
our Government, EVs are not selling well.
SHOCKING CANDOR ON FUEL STANDARDS (WSJ)
“For decades, bureaucrats in Washington have argued that
fuel-economy mandates pay for themselves... But unlike in previous rulemakings,
the costs are now so comically high that regulators can no longer pretend that
mandating greater fuel economy for passenger cars is good for society... But
the proposed rule says this White House’s not-so-secret password: climate
change. What about it? Without a hint of sarcasm, page 5-39 of the department’s
accompanying environmental assessment estimates that in 2060 the
proposal would reduce average global temperatures by 0.000%... Chinese
Communist Party officials must be reading our wonderful environmental
assessments for comic relief as they ramp up coal production.” - Michael
Buschbacher, partner at
the law firm Boyden Gray PLLC and served in the Justice Department’s
Environment Division (2020-21), and James Conde, counsel at Boyden Gray PLLC.
Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/transportation-department-fuel-standards-car-ev-electric-vehicle-auto-industry-climate-change-388d6dd0
If you would like to read and comment on this proposed
rule, go to...
https://www.regulations.gov/document/NHTSA-2023-0022-0004
The comments I read were all form letters from
Environmental Whackos who stated that “We urge NHTSA to finalize the strongest
rule possible...” Your comments are very important to counter such
mindless, partisan opinion.
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, which measures costs across a
broad array of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the
month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/cpi-inflation-report-august-2023-.html
My cmt: This was slightly higher than the predicted CPI,
however, it was probably below the level feared by stock traders.
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.0 million barrels from the
previous week. At 420.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4467.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 13.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.264%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 6.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 425-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.3%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Both the 10-dMA and the 50-dMA of issues advancing on the
NYSE dropped below 50%, In plain language this means that less than half of
issue on the NYSE have been up over the past 10 and 50-day periods. That’s
cause for concern.
Yesterday there was another Hindenburg Omen. Today, the Hindenburg
indicator cleared, so we saw 2 Hindenburgs this week...so far. The Fosback High-Low
Logic indicators also use new-high and new-low data in a similar manner. None of
the Fosback High-Low Logic indicators are currently bearish, or even very close
to bearish, so there is no confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen. However, other
indicators are falling. My Money Trend indicator has been falling all week.
Charts suggest a drop to 4300 is possible, but for now,
the Index has not broken its short-term lower trend-line and the Smart Money
Indicator (late-day-action) is bullish, so I won’t get too bearish, yet. Let’s
see tomorrow’s numbers and then the Friday summary of indicators.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) dipped
from -1 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +39 to +26.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remains
HOLD: PRICE is Bullish; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain Bullish, although I am getting a
little concerned.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
