GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“UAW leadership claims GM pays its team members ‘poverty’
wages. This is simply not true.” – Mark Reuss, President General Motors.
...According to Reuss, the latest GM offer would give 85%
of union workers a base pay of $85,000.
"Only in 60% of episodes was inflation brought back
down (or 'resolved') within 5 years. Most unresolved episodes involved
'premature celebrations', where inflation declined initially, only to plateau
at an elevated level or re-accelerate." – Jesse Felder, co-founder of
Aletheia, a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund.
GDP – THIRD ESTIMATE (live mint)
“The real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United
States expanded at an annual rate of 2.1 per cent in the second quarter, the US
Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) final estimate showed on Thursday, September
28. The reading came in line with the previous estimate and expectations by
economists on the Street.” Story at...
https://www.livemint.com/economy/us-real-gdp-grows-at-2-1-annual-rate-in-q2-in-line-with-street-estimates-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-higher-11695911236793.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. applications for unemployment benefits inched up
modestly this week after reaching their lowest level in eight months the
previous week...Filings for jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 204,000 for the
week ending Sept. 23, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Last week's
figure was the lowest since January.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/slightly-fewer-number-americans-apply-124006237.html
BACKLASH (MishTalk)
“There is an air of surrealism around the climate-change
debate in Britain and in much of Europe. The U.K. has dramatically reduced
carbon emissions over the past 30 years, thanks in significant part to
technological innovation. Its emissions per capita are now down to where they
were in the mid-19th century. The British government could mandate tomorrow the
elimination of all carbon emissions and a return to agrarian subsistence, and,
given the massive and rapidly rising levels of emissions from China, India and
elsewhere, it wouldn’t make the slightest difference to the climate.” Story
at...
https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-huge-backlash-against-climate-change-and-immigration-madness-has-started/
“One of the most significant advantages of an EV is that
they are safer for the environment. But is this true? If you look at the facts,
EVs are not zero-emission. They may have zero tailpipe emissions, but they are
certainly not pollution-free. EV batteries require mining materials like
lithium and cobalt, which harm the environment. EV batteries are also
complicated to recycle and dispose of, and new studies show that EV tires
produce 20% more pollution than gas-car tires. None of this screams “save the environment”
to me.” – Wealth of Geek$
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4300.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 17.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.579%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 10.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 436-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.5%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes
a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we
called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October
2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Moving Average (MA) spread between Utilities
and the S&P 500 index indicates that the Index is outpacing Utilities. That’s a bullish sign and we see others, too.
Internals continue to improve. Advancers were twice
decliners and advancing volume was almost 3 times higher than declining volume.
New 52-week lows remained much worse than new 52-week highs, but the spread
between the highs and lows improved. Utilities was the only sector down – a bullish
sign.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -10 to -9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -61
to -67. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
SELL: VOLUME & PRICE are bearish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
I’m not selling now. I’d prefer to hang on since I
am still expecting a relatively shallow pullback from August highs and if the
markets haven’t bottomed yet, they are not far from it.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
I am still cautiously optimistic – The S&P 500 appears to have bottomed, but I don’t see a confirmation in the indicators, yet.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
