PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
 
TRUMP PICKS GAETZ AS ATTORNEY GENERAL (NBC News)
“President-elect Donald Trump stunned Senate Republicans by announcing Wednesday that he will nominate Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., to be attorney general. Gaetz, a Trump loyalist known for being a rabble-rouser in Congress, will need a majority of the Senate to be confirmed as the country’s top law enforcement officer. Republicans will have a majority of 52 or 53 seats beginning Jan. 3, depending on the outcome of the Pennsylvania Senate race.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-baffles-republican-senators-picking-matt-gaetz-attorney-general-rcna180048
My cmt: It seems unlikely that he will be confirmed by the Senate. No wonder Trump is demanding recess appointments for his cabinet.
 
TRUMP CHOOSES RFK Jr. FOR HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CNBC)
“Shares of vaccine makers fell Thursday as President-elect Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services... Health policy experts have said a second Trump term could allow Kennedy to elevate anti-vaccine rhetoric, which could deter more Americans from receiving Covid shots and routine immunizations that have for decades saved millions of lives and prevented debilitating illnesses.” Story at... 
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/14/vaccine-maker-stocks-fall-as-trump-chooses-rfk-jr-to-lead-hhs.html
My cmt: Some of his misleading statements in interviews:
-        "There's no vaccine that is, you know, safe and effective."
-        "I do believe that autism comes from vaccines."
-        "Vaccines are exempt from placebo-controlled trials."
 
PPI (UPI)
“Wholesale Producer Price Index inflation rose 0.2% in October and is up 2.4% annually, according to a Thursday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast.” Story at...
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/11/14/PPI-inflation-October-BLS/8251731602265/
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in six months last week as layoffs remain at relatively healthy levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claim applications fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week of Nov. 9.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-american-filing-jobless-claims-133857725.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5949.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 14.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.447%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +7 is a bullish indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Actually, Wednesday, not Tuesay, there was High, unchanged-volume. A possible reversal sign, but often wrong.
 
The daily 50-indicator spread improved, but I watch the 10-dMA more carefully since it is a smoothed version of the data. So far, the 10-day data looks good. The S&P 500 has fallen three days in a row. Will the Index return to its 50-dMA? I doubt it since it was just there 8-days ago, but it’s always possible.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
 
“Taking stock as the markets enter a new week, we have fresh all-time highs in all major stock market indices except the Russell 2000... which I continue to believe will be at all-time highs this quarter.” – Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. From...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/post-rally-continues-small-caps-poised-for-aths/
 
CPI (CNBC)
“Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September... [The Core] 12-month inflation rate [rose] to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 5985.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.02. (The options players seem more bullish than the stock folks.) 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.451%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is a neutral indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish.. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Tuesday there was High, unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Possibly, but perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. The last time we saw this signal the S&P 500 declined about 1% before turning higher.
 
“The Smart Money Index was popularized by Don Hayes in the 1990s. It is a technical indicator that attempts to gauge what the “smart money” is doing relative to the “dumb money” in the U.S. stock market... The idea here is that the majority of traders (news-driven, emotional) make their trades at the opening bell because of the overnight economic data and news. On the other hand, the more experienced traders jump into the market [near] the close having the chance to evaluate market performance. The difference reflects the net trading of these “smarter” traders.” From...
https://www.warriortrading.com/smart-money-index/
 
I use an alternative version since I only look at what investors are doing in “late-day-action.” In other words, I am tracking the “smart money” not the dumb money. Currently, my version of the Smart Money Indicator is falling showing that recently, late-day trading has been bearish.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets, but with indicators giving a neutral indication I wouldn’t add new money at this point. I’m not planning any change to the portfolio, but that could change if indicators continue to fall.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Dean Vernon Wormer.
 
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points in October to 93.7. This is the 34th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98... “Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-on-the-rise-in-october/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5984.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.71.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.429%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is remains bullish – it’s not unusual to see indicators decline on a down-day, so no big deal.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.) That is the important signal for today.
 
Markets don’t go up every day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

How Did Trump Win? ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” -  Henry Ford
 
HOW DID TRUMP WIN?
 

Precinct by precinct, we see that the population centers are Democratic strongholds.
 

As of Monday (and most votes have now been counted), Trump has 74,878,000 votes. This is insignificantly more than the 74,224,000 votes Trump received in 2020. In 2020, Biden, who was considered a moderate at the time, received 81,284,000 votes, far more than the 71,378,000 Harris received in 2024. Smaller parties (Libertarian, Green, Independent and others) received 2.7 million votes in 2024 compared to 2.3 million votes in 2020. 
 
One of my “out there” republican acquaintances predicted that Trump would win because moderate Democrats and Independents wouldn’t vote for Harris. It looks like he was right. Apparently, about 10 million people who voted in 2020 sat out the 2024 election.  As I suggested last week, Trump didn’t win this election, the Democrats lost it. – Navigate the Stock Market Blog.
 
A DEMOCRAT PONDERS A THUMPING REBUKE (WSJ excerpt)
“The Democrats have come to regard white working-class voters as “reactionary and racist,” Mr. Teixeira [Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute] says. Those voters already defected to Mr. Trump in 2016, but what killed the Democrats this year was “losing nonwhite working-class voters hand over fist.” Mr. Teixeira notes that Barack Obama “carried the nonwhite working class or noncollege voters by 67 points. Harris has carried them with 33. That’s a halving of the margin among those who should have been the bulwark, the core, of the Democratic Party.” – Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-democrat-ponders-a-thumping-rebuke-party-chose-hard-left-cultural-issues-over-progressive-centrism-ed02e17f?mod=trending_now_opn_1
 
“When the hyperventilating is done, when scholars go to work, the real aberration of our time was the Democratic Party. In three successive elections, it manufactured fake evidence that its opponent was a Kremlin agent, orchestrated an intelligence conspiracy to cover up its own candidate’s family scandal, then tried to orchestrate the nomination of a senile president, which collapsed into chaos on the eve of its party convention.
An unavoidable part of this story is a blinkered national press whose self-image has fallen out of any realistic relation to its true nature, which has taken the human propensity for lickspittleism and turned it up to 11.” -  
Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ Editorial Staff. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fake-news-and-the-untold-story-of-three-presidential-elections-trump-washington-post-d806f403?mod=opinion_feat3_columnists_pos3
-        Lickspittle: “a person who praises and tries to please people in authority, usually in order to get some advantage from them” – Cambridge Dictionary.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6001.
-VIX rose about 0.2% to 14.97.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged (compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.306%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 3 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15 is strongly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Today, Monday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 15.5% of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs on those days.  That’s a good number that demonstrates a broad advance with healthy breadth.
 
Bollinger Bands have cleared their negative signal for the time being.
 
Today’s 3 bear-signals are not cause for worry because they are far outnumbered by bull-signs.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Buying the 2xRussell 2000

I added UWM to my trading portfolio. The Russell has broken out so it seems like a good trade.. Indicators still look very bullish although the S&P 500 is nearing its upper trend line. I'll show my re-draw of the trend line tonight. 

Michigan Sentiment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
THANK YOU DEMOCRATS (Newsweek)
“Dear Democratic Party, and its allies and accomplices,
Donald Trump supporters I know have asked me to dedicate some space to thank you for all you did to make their momentous win on November 5 a reality. They insist they couldn't have done it without your help. Here's a partial list of the many people and things Trump voters told me they believe fueled their victory.
First of all, thank you for not listening to us or trying to understand us over the past 8 years. Thank you for choosing to call us names like "fascist," "bigot," and "racist" whenever we disagreed with you... Thank you to the former 51 former intelligence officials who signed a letter in 2020 falsely claiming the Hunter Biden laptop story was Russian disinformation... Thank you, NCAA leadership, for using your rulemaking power to allow biological men to compete in women's sports. And thanks for calling us "transphobes" for standing up for the rights of our sisters, daughters, and wives to not share locker rooms with people with male genitals.
Thanks, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson for your answer to a question about what defines a woman during your Senate confirmation hearing. "I am not a biologist" was the perfect response...” - Lee Habeeb, American talk radio executive, host, podcaster and essayist. Co-founder of The Laura Ingraham Show.
See more at ...
Thank You, Democrats | Opinion
My cmt: I’m not a Trump supporter, but I have to admit that there’s a lot of truth to Mr. Habeeb’s commentary. (FYI, I didn’t vote for Harris either.)
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Trading Economics)
“The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US increased to 73 in November 2024, the highest in seven months, compared to 70.5 in October and above forecasts of 71, preliminary estimates showed. However, the reading do not capture any reactions to election results.” From... 
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5996.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 14.94.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.306%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +10 is bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
I previously mentioned the huge bullish jump in the indicators and that is easily seen in the above chart.  During this week’s bullish reversal, there have been a couple of rare, notable bullish indicators:
-        Election day was a 90% up-volume day.
-        Wednesday, the new-high/new-low data improved by more than 4 standard deviations.
 
Today, Friday, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. 10.6% of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs on those days.  That’s a good number that demonstrates a broad advance with healthy breadth.
 
Now, the most significant Bear signal is Bollinger Bands that are now overbought. RSI is not overbought so I’m not worried about the Bollinger Band signal since RSI is not confirming the signal. We also note that the S&P 500 still has a lot of room to run to its upper trend line.
 
“A toast to my big brother George, the richest man in town.” – Harry Bailey
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Blame it on Biden ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
BLAME IT ON BIDEN
“In the wake of former President Donald Trump’s resounding defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris—in which he improved his 2020 margins in nearly every key demographic—Democrats are facing a reckoning about what went wrong, and many are openly pointing the finger at President Joe Biden... David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama’s strategist, told Time magazine, “the story might have been different if” Biden “made a timely decision to step aside" From...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/11/07/legacy-in-tatters-reeling-democrats-blame-biden-for-harris-loss/
My cmt: Ok, blame it on Biden, but what about the press and other Democrats who aided the cover-up of Biden’s senility? Remember he hid in the basement (figuratively) in 2020 to get elected.
 
WHAT PLANS?
“The experience that I am having is one in which it is clear that regardless of someone’s gender, [voters] want to know that their president has a plan to lower costs, that their president has a plan to secure America in the context of our position around the world.” – VP Kamala Harris.
My cmt:  Excuse me. What were those plans? In her ads she campaigned on protecting a woman’s right to abortion, “I’m-not-Trump” and not much else.

MAYBE IT WAS HARRIS’ POLICIES:
Harris opposes right-to-work without joining a union; proposed a bill with Bernie Saunders to abolish private health insurance; co-sponsored the Green New Deal; proposed guaranteed payments to those making less than 100,000 per year; proposed taxpayers pay for college education; sued Exxon-Mobil over global warming (she doesn’t drive a car or heat her house?); supported sweeping changes to the “extreme” Supreme Court; stated she will support abolishing the filibuster in the Senate and more.
 
The self-described "government transparency website" scored Harris as the "most liberal compared to all senators" in 2019, outranking Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren at the time. (After Harris became the defacto Presidential candidate, the website removed the rating.)
 
OR HER IN ABILITY TO THINK ON HER FEET...
The most effective anti-Harris ad run by the Trump campaign? On The View, she was asked,
"If anything, would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years?"... Harris responded, "there is not a thing that comes to mind." 
 
OR MAYBE THE NY TIMES HAD IT RIGHT IN 2019
 “The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.
 
For all the “We’ve got to stop Trump” talk by the Democrats, they didn’t choose a candidate who could do it. Had they run Senator Joe Manchin (or another moderate Democrat) the story today would be about the Democrat 2 to 1 landslide victory and the end of Trump. The Democrats did a great disservice to the country by sticking with identity politics and a far left candidate

THE SHOCKING TRUTH

So far, Trump has received 2 million fewer votes in 2024 than he received in 2020 - this is not a Trump victory, it is a Democratic failure.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (RTTnews)
“The Labor Department said initial jobless claims crept up to 221,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 218,000...‘Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remain low as the biggest issue for the job market isn't firing but weaker hiring,’ said Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics.' Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3488872/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-rebound-modestly-from-five-month-low.aspx
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5973.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 15.20.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.326%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).<<Typo here previously.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Yesterday and today, (Thursday) the S&P 500 made new all-time highs. 16.7% and 9.8% (respectively) of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs on those days.  Those are good numbers that demonstrate a broad advance with healthy breadth.
 
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15 is very bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Indicators made a huge improvement over the past few days and that’s a bullish sign. As noted previously, the S&P 500 tends to bottom when the Daily indicator spread bottoms. Clearly, the mild pullback is over.
 
Now, the most significant Bear signal is Bollinger Bands that are now overbought. RSI is not overbought so I’m not worried about the Bollinger Band signal since RSI is not confirming the signal. We also note that the S&P 500 has a lot of room to run to its upper trend line.
 
“Looking good, Billy Ray!  Feeling good, Louis!”
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
SHORT BLOG TODAY, BASED ON DATA AROUND NOON – I’M TOO BUSY.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Harris was the first to drop out of the Presidential race in December of 2019. Why did they think she could pull this off? Her left-leaning positions were socialism on steroids.” – Navigate the Stock Market Blog.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS (at about Noon)
-Wednesday, at noon the S&P 500 was up about 2% to 5900.
-VIX fell about 21% to 16.21.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.433%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +12 (12 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +12 is bullish – duh! The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) turned bullish too since it is moving higher. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
No point in writing much today. Bullish is the theme.
 
Wednesday will probably finish as a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
I will mention that coming off a pullback, statistically-significant days are not followed by a reversal as often, but it would not be a surprise to see some profit taking.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals turned Bullish. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.