GDP ... Philly Fed ... Jobless Claims ... Leading Economic Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

CRAZY THINGS IN THE CONTINUING RESOLUTION
“Critics claim the continuing resolution is filled with provisions that would waste hundreds of billions of dollars on nonsense... Here are some of the provisions drawing the biggest blowback from conservatives, many of which were identified on X by users like Small Gov Lizard:
・Members of Congress would be allowed their first pay raise since 2009
・A provision that allows lawmakers to opt out of Obamacare and use the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program instead. [Lawmaker staffs would still be required to use Obamacare as are lawmakers under existing law. Obamacare was supposed to be such a god deal that Congress required members to be covered by it.  Apparently, they have changed their minds.]
・Language on transparency in concert ticket pricing
・The federal government paying the entire bill to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
・Accountability for recycling and composting fraud
・A “Feral Swine Eradication” program
・A continuation of the “Wool Trust Fund” until 2025
・Paying for juvenile delinquents to get their driver’s license
・No longer calling homeless adults and children “homeless”
・Extending a “sheep marketing grant program” until 2025
・The Global Engagement Center, the State Department’s office dedicated to censorship, will get another year of funding
・Spending $3 million dollars to test the inspection of molasses
These provisions and more have many House Republicans extremely frustrated with GOP leadership.
Story at...
The Craziest Things Congress Snuck Into Its Pork-Packed Christmas Spending Spree
 
GDP / PCE PRICES (pymnts.com)
“In the latest and final revision of how the economy fared in the third quarter — through the growth in gross domestic product — the headline is that growth was healthy. GDP was better than expected, and it’s almost always the case that GDP’s direction rests firmly on the shoulders of U.S. consumers’ spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the figure. GDP increased at a 3.1%...The PCE price index — a measure of inflation — rose by 1.5% in Q3, continuing its downward trend...” Story at...
https://www.pymnts.com/economy/2024/consumer-spending-lifts-q3-gdp-savings-rates-are-pressured/
 
PHILLY FED (Yahoo Finance)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said on Thursday that its monthly manufacturing index fell for a second straight month to negative 16.4 - the lowest since April 2023...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/philly-feds-manufacturing-gauge-slumps-142634589.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Economic Times)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended Dec. 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.” Story at...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected/articleshow/116477281.cms?from=mdr
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board via prnewswire)
"The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November.” Press release at... 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-increased-in-november-302336250.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.1% to 5867.
-VIX declined about 13% to 24.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.550%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
SPY – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
QLD – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
UWM – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 23 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. (Yesterday, there were 21 bear-signs and 6 bull-signs. I adjusted an indicator.) The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -18 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) continued down today so that is a bearish signal. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
We did see that both Bollinger Bands and the Overbought/Oversold ratio are oversold. Two indicators are not usually enough to suggest a bottom, but RSI is very close to oversold. I’d say “close enough.”  
 
Thursday, the S&P 500 tested its low from yesterday.  Volumes were lower and some internals improved and some didn’t, so I can’t call a bottom with confidence. Small pullbacks give small bottom-signals so it’s possible that Friday will be an end to the weakness.
 
I suspect that the declines are over or nearly over. Let’s see what the markets do Friday.  Mr. Market may tell us the bottom is in.  
 
If declines do continue, here are some support levels where declines may end:
100-dMA – S&P 500, 5743
October lows: S&P 500, 5700
200-dMA: about S&P 500, 5520
 
BOTTOM LINE
The weakness appears to be over, or close to over, but Futures are down as I write this so I may be wrong.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.