Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

"I fully believe vaccines cause Autism... It’s another example of crimes against humanity. And innocent babies, children, and their families are the victims." - Marjorie Taylor Greene (Congresswoman, R-GA)
 
"Marjorie Taylor Greene has also believed: Sandy Hook was staged; the 2018 California wildfires were set by Rothschild associates from outer space; The 2024 eclipse was “God telling us to repent." – GOP Pollster, Frank Luntz.
 
DRONE UPDATES – NO NATIONAL SECURITY RISK (ABC News)
“The thousands of drone sightings reported over the last month in Northeastern states don't appear to be "anything anomalous," nor do they present a national security or public safety risk, federal officials said in a multiagency statement late Monday.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/east-coast-drones-latest-fbi-dod-statement/story?id=116855247
My cmt: Really? See below...
 
CHINESE NATIONAL CONVICTED IN ESPIONAGE CASE (WAVY.com)
“Fengyun Shi [Chinese “student”] was flying the unmanned aircraft [drone] outside the 65th Street and Huntington Avenue Entrance of HII Newport News Shipbuilding when it got stuck in a tree. The SD card showed footage captured of U.S. Navy vessels or vessels intended for use by the Navy, according to court documents. This violates the Espionage Act, which prohibits a person of taking pictures of companies that manufacture classified military equipment. Shi was sentenced to six months for both counts.” Story at...
https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/chinese-national-sentenced-for-espionage-after-flying-drone-over-nn-navy-ships/
 
CHINESE NATIONAL ARRESTED FOR FLYING DRONE OVER VANDENBURG SFB (Santa Maria Times)
“A Brentwood man has been arrested and charged with federal offenses after allegedly flying a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base and photographing the site, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office. Yinpiao Zhou, 39, a Chinese citizen, was taken into custody on Dec. 9 at San Francisco International Airport as he prepared to board a flight to China.” Story at... 
https://santamariatimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/chinese-national-arrested-at-sf-airport-after-flying-drone-over-vandenberg-sfb-investigation-continuing/article_2d8d7c38-bbe8-11ef-a615-c75fa361492f.amp.html
 
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“November retail sales grew at a faster pace than Wall Street analysts had expected, reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer and indicating that the holiday shopping season in the US is off to a strong start. Retail sales rose 0.7% in November.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-retail-sales-top-wall-streets-expectations-133350109.html
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Industry Week)
“U.S. industrial production continued to contract last month, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday, announcing a surprise slump and extending the decline for a third consecutive month. Industrial output fell by 0.1% in November after declining in both September and October, the Fed said in a statement.” Story at...
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/news/55250145/us-industrial-production-slump-extends-into-november
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6051.
-VIX was up about 8% to 15.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was again unchanged (compared to about this time, prior trading day) at 4.395%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
SPY – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
QLD – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
UWM – sold 12/17. (IRA acct.)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -11 (11 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -11 is bearish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) continued down today so that is a bearish signal. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
The “Calm-Before-the-Storm” indicator flashed a warning Monday to expect a correction within the next 20-days. That warning remains today (Markets have been too calm recently.)
 
Repeating: By some measures, the S&P 500 is already in correction mode – the 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE has been below 50% for 3 days in a row and that’s a “correction now” signal. This doesn’t mean there is a crash coming, but more weakness is suggested. In mid-October there was a “calm-before-the-storm” warning without much of a decline. Back in July when there was a storm warning the Index corrected about 9%.
 
The S&P 500 is about 2% above its 50-dMA. Another 2% drop would push my leveraged funds down 4%.  With Indicators where they are now it does appear that the decline will continue until the Index reaches its 50-dMA. Since they can always fall below that point, I am being conservative by selling now.
 
On a positive note, the Fed may cut tomorrow and that might put an end to the weakness. In reality, the S&P 500 is not very weak – the Index is less than 1% below its all-time high, so what’s the worry? Indicators are telling us that conditions are right for declines in price, but not more than 10%.  I’d be surprised if a decline from here exceeds a couple of percent.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am more cautious now.  Indicators continue to fall. Near term, I’m bearish, but I expect to be bullish in a week or two (and possibly much sooner).
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.