Consumer Confidence ... Durable Goods ... New Home Sales ... National Activity Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
"Bipartisan' usually means that a larger-than-usual deception is being carried out." - George Carlin
 
NATIONAL ACCTIVITY INDEX (Chicago Fed)
“Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased in November:
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.12 in November from –0.50 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, but all four categories made negative contributions in November. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.31 in November from –0.27 in October.” Report at...
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
 
DURABLE GOODS (nasdaq.com)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods slumped by much more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday. The report said durable goods orders tumbled by 1.1 percent in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in October.” Story at...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-durable-goods-orders-pull-back-more-expected-november
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, rising for the fifth consecutive month and reaching its highest value since April 2024. Buying conditions exhibited a particularly strong 32% improvement, primarily due to a surge in consumers expecting future price increases for large purchases.” Report at... 
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
NEW HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded in November after being depressed by hurricanes in the prior month, but rising mortgage rates could hamper sales next year. New home sales jumped 5.9%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-rebound-november-153802284.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5974.
-VIX declined about 8% to 16.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.589%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -17 is bearish. The worrisome sign is that the spread declined.  There were 2 fewer bull-signals and 1 fewer bear-signal. We don’t like to see indicators falling after it appeared that markets made a bottom.  Let’s hope the indicators improve tomorrow.
 
On the good side, Price was bullish today – all of the major indices were up, except for the Russell 2000.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) continued down today so that is a bearish signal. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Still, I remain bullish and I am betting that the S&P 500 did make a bottom last week.
 
If declines do return/continue, here are some support levels where declines may end:
100-dMA – S&P 500, 5743
October lows: S&P 500, 5700
200-dMA: about S&P 500, 5520
 
BOTTOM LINE
Since price action was good today, I’ll stay with last week’s call; the weakness appears to be over, or close to over.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.