Wednesday, December 11, 2024

CPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
USDA PROVIDED 50-MILLION IN SUPPORT OF WOOL APPAREL MANUFACTURERS (USDA-May 2022)
“The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced a commitment of $50 million to assist eligible apparel manufacturers of worsted wool suits, sport coats, pants, or Pima cotton dress shirts; Pima cotton spinners; and wool fabric manufacturers and wool spinners. The new Cotton and Wool Apparel (CAWA) program is part of USDA’s Pandemic Assistance for Producers initiative...
“The transition toward remote work at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a dramatic decrease in consumer demand for dress clothing, which has continued to affect the entire supply chain of Pima cotton and wool,” said Farm Service Agency (FSA) Administrator Zach Ducheneaux. “While many manufacturers of these products shifted to the production of personal protective equipment, the industry has nevertheless struggled to recover from a persistent and significant decline in sales. The relief announced today will help keep these manufacturers in business, which will ultimately support American workers and the domestic Pima cotton growers and wool producers who rely on this industry.” From...
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-events/news/05-05-2022/usda-provide-50-million-support-us-cotton-wool-apparel-manufacturers
My cmt: In other words, the Government is supporting an industry that is suffering from a lack of demand. So much for capitalism...
Back when I was working in Government there was an incentive for wool production that dated back to WWI when wool uniforms were in vogue. Never doubt the ability of Government to waste money. There is still a requirement to make gasoline with a 10% ethanol additive that dates to the gas crisis of the early 1980’s when Saudi Arabia formed the Oil Cartel. The theory was that adding 10% ethanol derived from corn would cut gasoline needs by 10%. Now, the US produces more energy than it uses so there is no need for ethanol in gasoline. Worse, the ethanol destroys small engine carburetors and hoses since it attracts water. Cost wise, I suspect it does not save money since there are ethanol subsidies and energy is required to make the ethanol. It also diverts feed corn to fuel production that drives up the cost of beef. In Trump’s first presidency there was a push to do away with the ethanol requirement for gasoline, but there were too many congressional districts that would be hurt, so the waste continues.
 
SUBSIDIES AND BAILOUTS ARE ALSO PREVALENT IN OTHER COUNTRIES (The Telegraph)
“The Government said it had intervened to save the Vestas factory [a wind turbine factory], which had been “almost certain to close” [due to falling demand].
With taxpayer backing, the factory will switch from making offshore blades to smaller, onshore ones. One of Labour’s first acts in Government was to lift a de facto ban on onshore wind and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, has committed to doubling onshore wind energy generation capacity by 2030... Neither Vestas nor the Government were willing to disclose the financial details of the deal but the Government suggested it was part of the “most significant investment programme in homegrown British energy”. Story at...
Miliband bails out wind turbine factory as demand for blades tumbles
 
CPI (CNBC)
“Consumer prices rose at a faster annual pace in November, a reminder that inflation remains an issue both for households and policymakers. The consumer price index showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% after increasing 0.3% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday... The 12-month core reading was unchanged from a month ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/11/cpi-inflation-november-2024-annual-inflation-rate-accelerates-to-2point7percent-in-november-as-expected.html
No surprises in the data
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6084.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.275%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -5 is still bearish to Neutral. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) continued down today so that is a bearish signal. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
The daily spread did turn up today and that has often indicated a short-term bottom.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
This is a short-term signal – I’m not making any changes to my portfolio.
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.