“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
GREEN ELECTRICITY COSTS A BUNDLE (WSJ - Excerpt)
“...Take Germany, where electricity costs 30 cents a
kilowatt-hour—more than twice the U.S. cost and more than three times the
Chinese price...[but]...
...At least climate-obsessed European governments are
generally honest about solar and wind costs and raise electricity prices
accordingly, making consumers bear the weight of green energy policies
directly. In the U.S., by contrast, consumers pay solar and wind costs
indirectly—through tax deductions and subsidies.
Solar and wind credits cost the federal government more
than $20 billion in 2024, supplemented by state subsidies. Texas received about
$2 billion in federal subsidies last year, and state government subsidies at
least tripled that cost. This suggests a total hidden cost for the entire
U.S. that perhaps runs more than $60 billion annually, implying that the actual
cost of electricity with solar and wind is far higher than stated prices.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen
Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Commentary
at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/green-electricity-costs-a-bundle-wind-solar-data-analysis-power-prices-259344f4
My cmt: The Federal Government doesn’t actually pay the
cost either since the politicians just run-up the Federal Deficit. No one will
have to pay that, right? Maybe, but the house of cards will collapse when the
debt gets so high that investors refuse to buy bonds. Some have suggested that interest
rates are rising now due to the high national debt. Investors are bidding up
the interest rates in a desire to get more return for the increasing risk. Our debt
levels as a percent of GDP rival many banana republics.
ISM MANUFACTURING (prnewswire.com)
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered
49.3 percent in December, 0.9 percentage point higher compared to the 48.4
percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in expansion for
the 56th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A
Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time,
generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-49-3-december-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302341381.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 5942.
-VIX fell about 10% to 16.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.602%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs
and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +1 (1 more Bull
indicator than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear indicator spread improved today from -10 to
+1. The spread is Neutral, but the improvement from -10 to +1 is very bullish. The10-dMA of the 50-day indicator spread is
also bullish since it is now rising.
Indicators are now showing “correction-over” or should I
say “weakness-over” since there wasn’t much of a correction. The S&P 500 only
fell 3.7% from its all-time high on 6 December, down to slightly below its
50-day moving average (50-dMA). Today, Friday, the Index closed on its 50-dMA.
Some may worry that since the index didn’t close above its 50-dMA, there is
cause for alarm. I don’t think so. The
indicator reversal is pretty conclusive – the Bulls are in control, but we
could always see a down-day Monday.
Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about
60% of the time, but overall, today’s action was good news.
“This is not the correction you are looking for. You can
go about your business. Move along.”
BOTTOM LINE
"Yippee-ki-yay, Happy New Year," with apologies
to John McClain.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
GREEN ELECTRICITY COSTS A BUNDLE (WSJ - Excerpt)
“The claim that green energy is cheaper relies on bogus
math that measures the cost of electricity only when the sun is shining and the
wind is blowing. Modern societies need around-the-clock power, requiring
backup, often powered by fossil fuels. That means we’re paying for two power
systems: renewables and backup. Moreover, as fossil fuels are used less, those
power sources need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to
even more expensive power... Take Germany, where electricity costs 30 cents a
kilowatt-hour—more than twice the U.S. cost and more than three times the
Chinese price. Germany has installed so much solar and wind that, on sunny and
windy days, renewable energy satisfies close to 70% of Germany’s needs... Last
month, with cloudy skies and nearly no wind, Germany faced the highest power
prices since the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
with wholesale prices reaching a staggering $1 a kilowatt-hour. [About 10x the
cost in the US] ... If solar and wind really were less expensive, the world’s
poorer countries would easily leapfrog from today’s energy poverty to energy
abundance.” - Bjorn Lomborg, President
of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover
Institution. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/green-electricity-costs-a-bundle-wind-solar-data-analysis-power-prices-259344f4
My cmt: My nephew works for a large utility company. He said that renewable energy has complicated
his job. He balances energy supplies and when the sun and wind aren’t
cooperating, he has to make sure that power is transferred to where it is
needed. He described an accident when a car took out a power pole. The number
of people without power numbered in the thousands. It would have been a lot
less except that renewable energy means that energy balancing is much more
difficult on a cloudy day.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment checks
dropped last week to the lowest level since March, suggesting that suggest most
U.S. workers continue to enjoy unusually
high job security. Jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 211,000 last
week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/employment-layoffs-labor-united-states-economy-ae4832c3e937f5789a3de71cce98202f
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5869.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.563%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs
and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to -10 (10 more Bear
indicators than Bull indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT
The bull-bear indicator spread improved today and the
bullish divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 value remains.
This is indicated by green arrows on the above chart. The 10-dMA of the indicator
spread turned up today and that’s another buy signal.
BOTTOM LINE
Even though the S&P 500 declined today, indicators
suggest (again) the weakness is ending.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
