Navigate the Stock Market: 2025

Friday, November 21, 2025

Global Flash PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -19 to -20 (20 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

The S&P500 was down 1.6% Thursday, so a rebound Friday of about half that amount would be normal. The Index was up 1% today, slightly more than we might expect, but still within reason. Today’s move higher was close to a level that would suggest a down-day Monday.

When the number of bullish indicators in my ensemble falls to extremely low levels it is a concerning sign. There are now only 2 bullish indicators. One is the Utility/S&P 500 spread. This indicator is based on the fact that traders will buy utilities during market disruptions. The other bullish indicator is the 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. This is a long-term breadth indicator and it is nearly giving a bear signal.

So far, I haven’t seen many signs that this pullback is ending. The indications we saw Tuesday have been overcome by market action. Since I could always be wrong, we might guess that there is a 20% chance that the correction is over. We don’t always get good signals on small corrections.

The S&P 500 is 4.2% from its all-time high. The Index is 7.1% above its 200-dMA. The XLK ETF (Technology Select Sector) is down 10%.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Jobs … Philly FED Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

5 HINDENBURG OMENS (McClellan Financial Publications)
“There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen…
…Some analysts are dismissive of the Hindenburg Omen because of how there have been several instances of failed signals. Miekka [creator of the Hindenburg Omen] acknowledged that in the rules he crafted, something which these dismissive analysts fail to take into account. He insisted that the signal was only valid for the next 30 trading days, and only on days when the McClellan Oscillator is below zero. If the McClellan Oscillator goes above zero during that 30 trading day forward look, the signal remains valid but not in effect as long as the Oscillator is positive. You can see the McClellan Oscillator value every day on our web site's Market Breadth Data page, https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/.
These recent signals should not be viewed as a guarantee of trouble. They are like your check engine light, which could mean you are out of engine oil (really bad!!), or it could just be a loose gas cap. Use this information in concert with other indicators of trend direction, and as a warning that something is going a little bit unusually in the market, which may be worth keeping in mind.” - Tom McClellan Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Commentary at…
My cmt: Yup. We logged them here at NTSM.

SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/jobs-report-september-2025.html

PHILLY FED INDEX (RTT News)
“After reporting a steep drop by its reading on regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released on report on Thursday showing the index rebounded in November but remained in negative territory. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity jumped to a negative 1.7 in November after plummeting to a negative 12.8 in October, although a negative reading still indicates contraction.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3597319/philly-fed-index-rebounds-but-remains-negative-in-november.aspx

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 1.6% to 6539.
-VIX rose about 12% to 26.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.086% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 23 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

I noted yesterday that I didn’t think Tuesday was the end of the market weakness, but I was still surprised to see the massive turnaround in the major indices today (Thursday). Jeepers - the Nasdaq was up 2.5% at 10:30 this morning; at the close it was down 2.2%, a swing of almost 5%.

Volumes were up today, suggesting more selling and the chart looked horrible, so the correction is likely to continue.

The S&P 500 has dropped 5.1% from its all-time high. The Index is 6.2% above its 200-dMA.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -16 to -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

There was some late-day buying today and its always possible that it signaled that the pros were buying. I don’t think it was enough to suggest that the pros considered yesterday (Tuesday) the end of the recent market weakness; further, market internals were poor at today’s close.

The Lowry Research Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator is still headed down. That indicator called the bottom of the last big correction in October of 2022. It isn’t calling a bottom yet.

My conclusion is that the market weakness is not over yet. That could always be wrong. Nvidia reported strong earnings and rose about 6% today. Will that be enough to bring back the buyers? We’ll see.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but if I’m wrong, we’ll see strong buying tomorrow and a statistically significant up-day.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Not Buying Yet

I don't see much buying today and now there is afternoon selling. This isn't the pattern that I'd expect if there was agreement that Tuesday was a bottom. I will hold off on buying stocks today. Today is all about Nvidia. One would guess that a good report from Nvidia when they report this afternoon could put an end to the market weakness. We'll see.

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Time to Buy?

When we look at today’s (Tuesday’s) final numbers, we see a possible buying opportunity. Volumes were lower on today’s retest of the low and internals improved. This suggests that the correction has ended or is close to ending…in theory. There are questions: The “correction” has only lasted 15-days so far and that is a bit short; the S&P 500 has only fallen 4% from its all-time high. That’s not much. There is a bigger concern, at least regarding calling a bottom.

What I am doing is standard technical analysis. It is not a secret and Wall Street is well aware of techniques to call a bottom. When I check futures, they are slightly higher at 10:30 pm Tuesday, but not suggesting that Wall Street is buying.

I’ll wait and see if there is significant buying Wednesday that would confirm a buying opportunity. If there is, I’ll join in, especially if we see late-day buying. Otherwise, I’ll wait for a better opportunity.

Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TY COBB: COMEY CASE IS DEAD (The Hill)
“Former White House lawyer Ty Cobb on Monday said the Justice Department’s (DOJ) case against former FBI Director James Comey is “dead” due to missteps made by Lindsey Halligan, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, throughout the indictment…Magistrate Judge [William] Fitzpatrick’s opinion today will be taught in law schools for 50 years as the epitome of prosecutorial misconduct.“…Cobb told CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront“ that Halligan was to blame “in large part” for the errors.
“Her time in the grand jury is extraordinary. She told the grand jury, basically, that Comey didn’t have a Fifth Amendment right at trial to refuse to testify,” he told host Erin Burnett. “And therefore, he would be able to give his explanation as to the events and counter the government’s evidence, which the judge noted appropriately was burden shifting.”
“And moreover, she told the grand jury in an extraordinary statement not to worry about the record with which they had been presented because the government had better evidence at trial,” he continued. “That’s like saying, ‘Please indict this person because we don’t have time to indict innocent people.’ It’s just way, way, way out of bounds.” Story at…
Ty Cobb: DOJ Comey case ‘dead’
My cmt: Cobb is not a biased political hack. He was White House special counsel under Trump in 2018.

NAHB HOUSING (Advisor Perspectives)
“Builder confidence was relatively flat in November as economic uncertainty kept sentiment in negative territory for a 19th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) inched up from (Advisor Perspectives)37 in October to 38 in November. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 37…“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C.” Commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-november-2025

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 6617.
-VIX rose about 7% to 23.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.119% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -18 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Monday the S&P 500 closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. Tuesday it was down again. When the Index closes below its 50-dMA on consecutive days, it is seen by some as a change-in-trend signal, i.e., the trend is now down. I’m not sure we needed an indicator to tell us that.

There was some good news today. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were oversold. Those are bottom indicators. Will it be a bottom? Not necessarily. Markets can remain oversold for extended periods. Let’s check the market numbers.

Volume was projected to be slightly lower today suggesting less “selling;” internals were very good. Together these stats are suggesting “correction over.”

The Lowry Research Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator is still headed down. That indicator called the bottom of the last big correction in October of 2022. It isn’t calling a bottom yet, but we always point out that small corrections give small signals. One fact that argues against the correction being over? – the S&P 500 has only fallen 3.7% from its all-time-high and that’s not much of a correction.

Volume will update until 8PM tonight. This call will come down to the wire and I’ll update the data tonight or tomorrow. If volume turns out to be lower than the prior low, it would suggest that this correction is over. Maybe Investors are guessing that Nvidia will save the day with good earnings tomorrow – not a bad guess.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but that will change if volume comes in lighter.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, November 17, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

Sorry, Republicans: ‘Democratic socialist’ is no longer a career-ender in US politics (The Hill)
“At his victory celebration on election night, Zohran Mamdani declared, “I am young, despite my best efforts to grow older. I am Muslim. I am a democratic socialist. And most damning of all, I refuse to apologize for any of this.”
As the crowd roared its approval, the mayor-elect reaffirmed his priorities: freeze rents on stabilized apartments; make bus service free; construct 200,000 housing units; raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030; provide free universal childcare and “a better distribution of wealth for all God’s children.” He then thanked young New Yorkers “who refuse to accept that the promise of a better life is a relic of the past.” Story at...
Opinion: Sorry, Republicans: ‘Democratic socialist’ is no longer a career-ender in US politics
My cmt: Sorry Republicans? How about, Sorry United States?

RENT CONTROL AS A CONSTITUTIONAL TAKING (WSJ)
“Finding an affordable place to live in New York City is an ordeal, but it doesn’t have to be as bad as it is. The city’s low vacancy rate is made worse by rent regulations that have taken many New York city apartments off the rental market. That’s the subject of a lawsuit filed Wednesday by building owners [Pashko and Tony Lulgjuraj] challenging the city’s rent “stabilization” law. The statute limits the rent increases a landlord can demand of existing tenants or new ones. Rent increases are limited to between 3% and 4.5% when a tenant renews an existing lease or when the apartment is vacated... After decades with long-term tenants, the brothers calculated that getting the apartments back up to code would cost thousands of dollars that couldn’t be recouped at the artificially low rent cap. So the apartments sit vacant and off the rental market. According to the Census Bureau, in 2024 there were some 26,000 regulated apartments in the same situation.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/rent-control-new-york-lawsuit-pashko-tony-lulgjuraj-1ddd5663?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc4DF7pTuEzC-b6Ma1xMxWi_qlbFrwAmJGTLKlejzDJDE6ezVMRuyN6RV0Voks%3D&gaa_ts=691a3bee&gaa_sig=5uylQP2xkWG099tOKVeSS9TssCnaqXBpK3y0fMQ8X9p9_n1wWbNsvJRZzE_LlFyZ2Ufhx7dQArKD3M5tb40Xmg%3D%3D
My cmt: Mr. Mamdani’s plans will only make matters worse.

TRUMP FAILING ON INFLATION (Light Wave Reports)
“President Donald Trump is confronting a deepening political liability as new data shows his standing on inflation has cratered, CNN data analyst Harry Enten told anchor Kate Bolduan this week. Enten said the shift is not about “fake” polling, as Trump has repeatedly claimed, but a measurable rejection from voters themselves.” Story at…
Polling Expert Sees ‘Massive Issue’ Turning Voters Against Trump
My cmt: This is hilarious. Of all the reasons to turn on Trump - here’s a partial list: He is killing suspected smugglers with military force; he is firing everyone in the Justice Department who followed their orders and investigated Trump; he has installed a sycophant yes-man cabinet; he has been despicable to women; he attempted to overthrow a lawful election in 2020 and he still claims he beat Biden; he led an attempt to block election certification thru intimidation and riot; he has pardoned his fellow criminals, etc. Now the public is turning on him for inflation??!! Inflation under Biden was 10% - prices double every 7 years. They’re mad at Trump for inflation? Inflation has fallen to 3% under Trump - prices will double every 24 years – still above the Fed target, but a lot closer now.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 0.9% to 6672.
-VIX rose about 13% to 22.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.137% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

The S&P 500 dropped most of the day and closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. If it closes there again tomorrow it would suggest a trend change and would signal we are in correction territory.

When we look at the data today, we note that volumes on the NYSE declined in comparison to the prior lower low. That’s a good sign suggesting less selling, but internals were worse, so today was not a successful test of the low – correction not over.

As a guess, I might say that there is a 20% chance today, Monday, was the low.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish. It looks like we are heading into a correction. Based on prior work (and previous posts in this blog) a correction from here is likely to be less than 10%. The S&P 500 is 8.5% above its 200-dMA and that would be a logical guess to the extent of a correction.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, November 14, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued sharply down, a BEARSH sign.

There was late day selling on the S&P 500 and afternoon selling on the Nasdaq. Neither are especially bullish. Indicators crashed down too. While the markets looked bad, there were some signs that selling is slowing. Volume was lower on the NYSE than yesterday’s low and much lower than the 6 November low. Internals improved too, although not enough to give me a buy signal. Still, small declines give small signals so we may not see a confirmed successful test of the prior low. All we can conclude is that there is a possibility that today was the low for the current decline. As a guess I might say that there is a 40% chance today, Friday, was the low.

Let’s see if we can get some further clues on Monday. If we see a strong day with late-day buying, it would suggest that Friday was possibly a bottom.

There are still plenty of bear signs so let’s hope we see some more clues next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, November 13, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign, but it remains almost flat suggesting a possible reversal to the bullish side.

I mentioned yesterday that it would be nice to see the Technology stocks drop to their 50-dMA. I didn’t expect it to happen in less than 24 hours! The S&P 500 finished 0.6% above its 50-dMA as of Thursday’s close; The Technology Sector (XLK) was 0.7% above its 50-dMA. Now we need to figure out if this is a buying opportunity. Thursday’s low was on lower volume than the recent low on 6 November, so it might have been a successful test of the prior low. The trouble is, we don’t know. Buying pressure fell compared to the prior low. My suggestion is to wait and see. A strong bounce followed by further gains would suggest a time to buy. We could also see more selling.

I saw a piece that said the current selling in technology was by Hedge Funds and Wall Street pros. If the average investor joins in the selling, a correction is likely. On the other hand, we might see retail investors buy the dip – no correction.

Monday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there were only two Bottom Indicators, not enough to send a strong bottom-signal, so I don’t know.

The was another Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator sell signal today, and another Hindenburg Omen. That’s 8 Omens in 13 days.

There is now only a 47% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting according to the CME Group Fed Watch, so the Fed may not be propping up the market.

Let’s see what happens in the next day or two.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

As of Friday, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.