“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value
Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
CHUCK SCHUMER COURTS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Congress needs to fund the government anew when the
current fiscal year ends on Sept. 30. House Republicans hope to vote Friday on
a stopgap measure, known as a continuing resolution, that would punt the
spending fight and keep the government open through Nov. 21...Democrats have
offered a draft CR that would add nearly $1.5 trillion in new spending, says Matthew Dickerson at the Economic Policy
Innovation Center... GOP leader John Thune noted on the Senate floor
that most Democrats had no problem voting for short-term funding measures more
than a dozen times when President Biden and Democrats ran Washington...if
Republicans stick together, they’ll have the political high ground in wanting
to avoid a government shutdown that accomplishes nothing.” – The Editorial
Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/government-shutdown-congress-chuck-schumer-mike-johnson-continuing-resolution-gop-democrats-ea4fd8af?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
My cmt: $1.5-trillion more in spending? OMG, that’s all
we need.
THE FCC DISNEY AND JIMMY KIMMEL (WSJ-Excerpt)
“The squeeze on Disney [owner of ABC] looks to be a case of cancel culture
on the right. Mr. Kimmel’s comments Monday associating Charlie Kirk’s killer
with the “MAGA gang” were false, callous and stupid. But they weren’t inciting
violence, and in a free society they shouldn’t be cause for the government to
push someone off the airwaves... We want to be clear that none of this
justifies the right’s resort to regulatory censorship. As victims of cancel
culture for so long, conservatives more than anyone should oppose it. They will
surely be the targets again when the left returns to power.” The Editorial
Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/fcc-disney-jimmy-kimmel-brendan-carr-media-regulation-197bdf0a?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: False, inflammatory language inflames the weak
minded and sets the stage for more violence. Regrettably, that is ok in our
society. Unfortunately, the quick fix, censorship, is not the fix needed.
CASS FREIGHT DATA HAVE BAD NEWS FOR STOCKS (McClellan
Financial Publications)
“Some recent data on trucking shipments in the U.S.
serves as bad news for stock prices. The folks at Cass
Information Systems keep track of how much stuff is getting shipped by
truck in the U.S...This week's chart compares the SP500 to the 12-month rate of
change (ROC) for both the Shipments and Expenditures Indices which Cass
maintains...Now both indices have their 12ROCs back down below zero, which is
where they typically hang out during bear markets for the SP500. This
news does not tell us how bad things might get for stocks, nor when any bearish
period might precisely begin or end.” – Tom McClellan, McClellan Financial Publications.
Additional Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/cass_freight_data_have_bad_news_for_stocks/
BULL TRAP? (Barron’s)
“...there is one other notable index that isn’t taking
part in the broader market surge: the Dow Jones Transportation Average. In
fact, it’s down more than 1.5% this year—and that could be a worrisome sign...Charles
Dow, co-founder and editor of The Wall Street Journal. Basically, the theory
states that the Transports need to move higher in tandem with the 30 Dow Jones
Industrial Average members to confirm that a broader market rally has legs.
That isn’t happening now.” Story at...
Beware
This ‘Bull Trap’ as Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6664.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.133%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I
track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +7 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and has declined to
a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
Today was an options expiration day with huge volumes. I
am always reluctant to put too much emphasis on days like today. Indicators
declined today. Declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues 2 to 1. Advancing volume
was weak too. Was that due to profit taking in the Russel 2000 small caps? It
may have been. Still, I try to trust the 50-indicator ensemble so I am watching
markets closely.
On Friday there was another new all-time high for the
S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we
look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.7% of issues on the NYSE made
new 52-week highs today. That number is below
the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a
warning, i.e., it’s ok, but I’d like to see it higher.
I am considering Goldman Sachs, but I’ve been holding off
due to falling indicators. It has been one of my highest momentum picks. Zacks
wrote the following:
“Investors should take the time to consider GS for their
portfolios due to its solid Zacks Ranks, notable earnings metrics, and
impressive Momentum and VGM Style Scores. From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-investor-1-stock-could-135002028.html
While indicators have drifted into neutral territory,
there are still plenty of bull signs so I am not overly concerned.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate
when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My
basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most
useful when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value
Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
“We had some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang
desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as
anything other than one of them and with everything they can to score political
points from it.” – Jimmy Kimmel, suspended host of a former late night TV show
on Disney owned ABC.
“Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat and
ranking member on the House Oversight Committee, slammed ABC’s decision to
suspend Jimmy Kimmel’s show.” From...
Jimmy
Kimmel’s late night show pulled off air ‘indefinitely’ after Charlie Kirk
comments: Live Updates
My cmt: So Kimmel thinks the shooter was MAGA?
I rarely listen to right-wing radio because it’s so
predictably pro-Trump, but I was curious about their position on the Kimmel
firing. I was a little surprised to find that “Clay & Buck” (Fox radio,
noon to 3 locally) were opposed to his firing. For them, it was a matter of
content and they were not happy that a comedian got fired for an off-hand
comment. They recognized with different parties in power; the powers might come
for them.
“A Texas State University student who was filmed mocking
the assassination of Charlie Kirk at a memorial event has been expelled.
The student, who has not been named, was caught on camera
mimicking the conservative influencer’s killing in an apparent
attempt to taunt a group of his supporters on the school’s campus.” Story at...
Texas
University student expelled for mocking Charlie Kirk murder
Virtual
Hatred: How Russia Tried to Start a Race War in the United States (Univ of
Michigan)
“During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Russian
government engaged in a sophisticated strategy to influence the U.S. political
system and manipulate American democracy. While most news reports have focused
on the cyber-attacks aimed at Democratic Party leaders and possible contacts
between Russian officials and the Trump presidential campaign, a more
pernicious intervention took place. Throughout the campaign, Russian operatives
created hundreds of fake personas on social media platforms and then posted
thousands of advertisements and messages that sought to promote racial
divisions in the United States. This was a coordinated propaganda effort.” - Michigan Journal of Race and Law > Volume 24 > Issue 2 (2019)
Story at...
https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjrl/vol24/iss2/2/
My cmt: Some of the current political vitriol on both
sides is fomented by Russian & Chinese intelligence – count on it.
PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX (Phlly FED)
“Responses to the August Manufacturing Business
Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this
month. The indicators for current activity and new orders dipped into negative
territory, while the shipments index declined but remained positive. On
balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes
rose further above their long-run averages. The survey’s broad indicators for
future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six
months.” Report at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2025-08
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Initial applications for jobless benefits in the US
dropped by the most in nearly four years, reversing an unusually large jump in
the prior week and consistent with low levels of layoffs in the economy. Initial
claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 in the week ended Sept. 13,
according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s in line with
levels seen throughout this year and not far off the pre-pandemic trend...”
Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/us-initial-jobless-claims-drop-by-most-in-almost-four-years
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly
decline since April 2025...Among its components, only stock prices and the
Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months...Overall,
the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver
of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1
2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this
year and in H1 2026. The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession
currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025...” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/?utm_term=&utm_campaign=TCB+%7C+C-Suite+Perspectives+%7C+PMAX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=7966952753&hsa_cam=22625443146&hsa_grp=&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=x&hsa_tgt=&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22631709008&gbraid=0AAAAADpIWanHDVe5qBMZaV4eAD4PttFiu&gclid=Cj0KCQjw267GBhCSARIsAOjVJ4HwuH9OJq8PJjABR4pztLk9Ag58ocFS1UWad3VSgKfdg8oR8uA9O6oaAmjTEALw_wcB
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 15.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.11%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from 11 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is giving a
Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down – a bearish sign.
I was considering adding to stock positions, given the Nvidia-Intel
news (Nvidia and Intel have agreed to work together; Nvidia made a $5-Billion
investment into Intel.), but indicators fell to neutral when I made a preliminary
check of indicators around mid-day. That put me in a more cautious mood and I
held off adding any stocks.
On Thursday there was another new all-time high for the
S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we
look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 5.4% of issues on the NYSE made
new 52-week highs today. That number is below
the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a concern, but it does not trigger a
warning. It suggests market breadth is weak but good enough.
Checking the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart
(above), we note that the 10-dMA of spread has not changed much in the last
month while the S&P 500 has marched higher. We don’t like to see divergence
between the indicators and price, but divergence is not unusual, especially in
the short run. No need to get too concerned. Indicators are still bullish.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate
when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of
Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when
it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value
Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
A TARIFF LESSON FOR COFFEE DRINKERS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“President Trump’s tariffs are coursing through the
American (and world) economy, even if their macro effects are taking time to
show up in the national statistics... The price of a pound of
unroasted Brazilian beans has jumped to more than $6 from $4.50 [wholesale],
says Dan Hunnewell, the owner of Coffee Bros., a specialty supplier in New
York. He’s trying to keep his own prices steady “as long as possible,” he adds.
“I will even eat some of the difference.” But if the 50% tariffs on Brazil
continue, he expects to raise prices ‘pretty significantly...’” - WSJ Editorial
Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjO9wsojqiz2EVHTeRG6kGIcEj0QeQNR-6jyBSTH8mIjmpgWwKg4t4CN2HWAtY%3D&gaa_ts=68cb01b1&gaa_sig=FNwUEn76bXbbRmporRz-SsHtRXD2mD3Pd2LHJmpAMU0Qdr7JHhoB4NR9eXvenrzfuAbpZ4mpj6vZd_WbDNz92A%3D%3D
THE MARKET IS RISKIER (WSJ-Excerpt)
“Investors have a strange relationship with risk. On the
one hand, they want it: Risk brings reward when it works out. On the other
hand, unrewarded risk is the very last thing anyone wants...This is relevant to
today’s stock market because the market is riskier than it used to be...
... it is much more concentrated in a handful of stocks
than in modern times. That means investors who simply track the market are
taking much more single-stock risk than in the past...
...The concentration is well-known, but that doesn’t stop
it from being scary. Buy the S&P 500, and the top five stocks make up 27.7%
of the portfolio, up from 11.7% a decade ago and the same as in 1964...Who
wants to diversify when concentration has worked so well?...In the past, lots
of people...it’s worth hedging your bets...” - James Mackintosh. Senior Markets
Columnist, The Wall Street Journal.
Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-markets-riskier-than-it-used-to-beand-investors-love-it-8eecddc2?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAiNDmvIpAMpfGRMzWGG_8bi_S1Vhd9PqDFeX6c7paXjWgu4mKYAlY9Fggr2oeA%3D&gaa_ts=68caf9b3&gaa_sig=is_oLHatBpL-Sv0jeraeQUpd5iWH44ubm1SA07mkMTmiiT9oelJ8i4d2zHiq-8z7lZjKEBmfHFgW3zk1NdIEeA%3D%3D
My cmt: There were several more risk elements mentioned
in the article. It’s interesting, because my numbers don’t fully support the
premise. At a recent all-time high on the S&P 500, almost 9% of issues on
the NYSE made new 52-week highs. That is well above the 5-year average for this
stat and it suggests a healthy participation in the market. So as measured by
issues, the markets are not overly concentrated. It’s possible that they are
too concentrated based on the size of the leaders, but that’s not a number that
I track. I suspect that in the past when markets have been concentrated, the
companies that everyone was piling into were large too – think Exxon,
Microsoft, etc, - so this concern may be overblown at present. Will it stay
that way? We can only guess.
FED FUNDS (CNBC)
“The Federal
Reserve on Wednesday lowered the benchmark overnight lending rate by a
quarter percentage point, and expects two more rate cuts could be made by the
year’s end. However, the members see the new year bringing just one more
quarter-point cut.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
"While the labor market appears to be in balance, it
is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the
supply of and demand for workers." – Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This comment was made in the Jackson Hole
speech and reiterated today, 17 September.
HOUSING STARTS (Yahoo Finance)
“Single-family homebuilding continues to lag
expectations: -7% month over month and -12% year over year...Building Permits,
also expected to come in around 1.37 million seasonally adjusted, annualized
units for the month, fell as well: to 1.312 million. This is a pretty
undeniable softening in the forward-looking housing starts market...” Story
at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-starts-decreased-august-151300211.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.3 million barrels from the
previous week. At 415.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6600.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.087%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I
track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 daily chart shows the usual volatility on the
day the Fed announces its rate decision. After all the turmoil, the S&P 500
was little changed.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from 12 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is still
giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA
curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remains headed higher – a
bullish sign.
Nvidia has broken its lower trend line and its
50-dMA. This isn’t a great sign when the
market leader looks weak. Nvidia can be very volatile – let’s hope the weakness
is confined to this issue.
Wednesday, we again note that Unchanged volume is high, a
sign of confusion that some believe precedes a change in market direction. It
was also very high on Monday. I’ve never included this in my indicators since
it is wrong much more than right.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate
when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
RETAIL SALES (NY POST)
“US retail sales showed surprising strength during the
back-to-school season – a sign that Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet cowed shoppers as the
Federal Reserve weighs a decision on cutting rates. Excluding cars, retail
sales rose 0.7% in August from the previous month...Overall retail sales
increased 0.6%.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2025/09/16/business/retail-sales-jump-in-august-on-surprisingly-strong-back-to-school-season/
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RTT News)
“Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly edged
slightly higher in the month of August, according to a report released by the
Federal Reserve on Tuesday. The Fed said industrial production crept up by 0.1
percent in August...” Story at...\
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-industrial-production-unexpectedly-inches-slightly-higher-august
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6607.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.36.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.030%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I
track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +9 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving
a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of
the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remains headed higher – a bullish
sign.
Tuesday, there was a Bearish outside reversal:
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a
potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed
when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of
the previous day’s trading session...Technical analysts and experienced traders
prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with
other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical
studies.” – Investopedia.
There was a Bearish outside reversal about 2 weeks ago. There
was no decline after that signal and we wonder whether this one will prove to
be more accurate.
My guess is that it will not be accurate; most indicators
are headed higher. It looks like
investors expect good news from the Fed. A quarter point rate-cut is expected.
The one thing that could derail the markets tomorrow is if the Fed chair suggests
there won’t be future cuts due to inflation concerns. That doesn’t seem likely,
but it could happen.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate
when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
CHARLIE KIRK VIRAL CLAIMS (FactCheck.org)
I mentioned last week that many of Charlie Kirk’s
comments have been taken out of context. Here are 2 examples:
(1)...“When Nancy Pelosi’s husband was attacked with a
hammer, did Kirk encourage his audience to contribute to bail out [the]
attacker?”
Yes, he did. In the Oct. 31, 2022, episode of his show (at around 53:00 in
the video), Kirk said the attack on Paul Pelosi was “awful” and “not right,”
but he said that someone should bail out the assailer, David DePape, because
cashless bail policies in certain cities allowed other people to commit crimes
and be released from custody pending trial.
“And why is he still in jail? Why has he not been bailed
out?” Kirk asked. “By the way, if some amazing patriot out there in
San Francisco or the Bay Area wants to really be a midterm hero, someone should
go and bail this guy out. I bet his bail’s like 30[,000] or 40,000 bucks. Bail
him out, and then go ask him some questions.”
“I’m not qualifying it. I think it’s awful. It’s not
right,” Kirk said about the attack on Pelosi, who suffered a skull fracture after being hit in the head with a
hammer. “But why is it that in Chicago you’re able to commit murder and be out
the next day? Why is it that you’re able to trespass, second-degree murder,
arson, threaten a public official, cashless bail. This happens all over San
Francisco. But if you go after the Pelosis, oh, you’re [not] let out
immediately. Got it...”
(2)... the author Stephen King, who had posted on X on Sept.
11 that Kirk had “advocated stoning gays to death,” retracted his claim and apologized. King said,
“What [Kirk] actually demonstrated was how some people cherry-pick Biblical
passages.” Story at...
Viral
Claims About Charlie Kirk’s Words
My cmt: This Interesting read confirms that Kirk’s words
and positions have been twisted in many cases.
There were many examples.
PENNSYLVANIA FARMERS CAN’T FIND LABOR. WHY IS THAT?
(Esquire)
“In Tioga County [Pennsylvania], where President Donald
Trump won 75 percent of the vote in 2024, farmers are losing patience with the
White House’s promise of a quick solution for farm workers...” Their urgent
need is highlighted by stories like those of a multigenerational dairy farm
that sold off all its dairy cows because the owner could not find workers and
another where a farmer’s job listings have received no responses... Farmers in
the rural region near the New York border say those stories are not unique. ‘The
whole thing is screwed up,’ said John Painter, a three-time Trump voter who
runs an organic dairy farm in Westfield. ‘We need people to do the jobs
Americans are too spoiled to do.’... The U.S. agricultural workforce fell by
155,000—about 7 percent—between March and July, according to an analysis of
Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That tracks with Pew Research Center data that
shows total immigrant labor fell by 750,000 from January through July. The
labor shortage piles onto an ongoing economic crisis for farmers exacerbated by
dwindling exports.” Story at...
Pennsylvania
Farmers Can’t Find Labor. Now, Why Is That?
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR (MarketWatch)
“Investors are hoping a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut
later this week could deliver a boost to U.S. markets and the economy. But they
should be careful what they wish for, according to Doug Ramsey, chief
investment officer at the Leuthold Group...
The biggest risk, in Ramsey’s view: A rate cut would do
little to boost manufacturing activity or revive the housing market, which has
been essentially frozen since shortly after the Fed started raising interest
rates in 2022. Instead, yields on long-dated Treasury notes and bonds could
climb in the aftermath as inflationary pressures reaccelerate. If this comes to
pass, rate cuts would likely have the opposite of their intended effect.” Story
at...
Investors
eyeing a Fed rate cut this week: Beware the unintended fallout for U.S. markets
and the economy
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6615.
-VIX rose about 6% to 15.69. (The Options players are
expecting the Fed meeting to move the markets?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.037%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved
from +6 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a
mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA
curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed higher – a bullish
sign.
A few bearish signals:
-Monday, Unchanged volume was high, a sign of confusion
that some believe precedes a change in market direction. I’ve never included
this in my indicators since it is wrong much more than right.
-Bollinger Bands are overbought but RSI is not, so this
isn’t telling us much.
-The Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is
not confirming the bullishness. The chart hasn’t changed much over the last
several days. If anything, it is now trending down.
-The Utility/ S&P 500 spread is bearish since
Utilities have been outperforming the S&P 500. When investors are nervous
they tend to buy Utilities.
On the bullish side, Breadth Smart Money, Money Trend, McClellan
Oscillator and more are bullish.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate
when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
Michale Ramirez, Political Commentary at...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-what-political-violence-has-done-to-our-country-3440720/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20What%20political%20violence%20has%20done%20to%20our%20country
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
CHARLIE KIRK EXAMPLE (WSJ)
“...when people stop talking, really bad stuff starts.
When marriages stop talking, divorce happens. When civilizations stop talking,
civil war ensues. When you stop having a human connection with someone you
disagree with, it becomes a lot easier to want to commit violence against that
group...What we as a culture have to get back to is being able to have a
reasonable disagreement, where violence is not an option.’’ - Charlie Kirk,
conservative activist, CEO Turning Point.org.
[Kimberley A. Strassel commentary excerpt, WSJ]
...a nation that hears its leaders darkly warn on a daily
basis that their political opponents are hell-bent on imposing tyranny is more
liable to justify any action in response. And a media that has made a business
model out of amplifying the showboats, mouth-offs and provocateurs—rather than
giving attention to serious players—only eggs it all on.
The politicians waiting around for their constituents to
ask them to behave better will be waiting a long time; they’ve already created
a raging nation... soon, none [of the Politicians] will be safe. If for no
other reason than self-preservation, perhaps then they will remember the
example that was struck down in Utah on Wednesday. And turn today’s empty words
into meaningful ones.” - Kimberley A. Strassel, “Potomac Watch” columnist for
the WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-charlie-kirk-example-9c311c4f?mod=columnists_article_pos3
My cmt: I was curious about Charlie Kirk and why there is
so much vitriol surrounding him. I looked at Charlie Kirk’s website. Here’s
their mission statement: “Turning Point USA is a 501(c)(3) non-profit
organization founded in 2012 by Charlie Kirk. The organization’s mission is to
identify, educate, train, and organize students to promote the principles of
fiscal responsibility, free markets, and limited government.” Website at...
https://tpusa.com/
I couldn’t find a list of “beliefs” on their website. I
watched some videos of Charlie debating students. They are numerous. He was
anti-abortion, pro-gun, supportive of traditional family roles. I watched him
calmly discuss gun control with a gay student. He did not display the slightest
bit of condescension or animosity. Watching the videos, I realized that many of
the statements and positions attributed to him have been taken out of context.
He is a conservative, traditionalist, but if he’s an extremist, as the left
wingers (and his murderer) are saying, I didn’t see the evidence.
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer
sentiment moved down less than three index points in early September. This
month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle
income consumers...Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the
economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and
inflation. Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well;
current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month. Trade
policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers
providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed
from last month. Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings,
immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs. Year-ahead
inflation expectations held steady at 4.8%...”
Press release at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6584.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 14.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.068%
(compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined
from +8 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a
mildly Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA
curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it is falling again – a bearish
sign.
Here are a few more indicators that are bearish today:
-The Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is
not confirming the bullishness. The chart looks the same as yesterday.
-We noted yesterday that the % of 52-week, New-Highs
looked good at the new all-time high. In general, though, most of the
new-high/new-low indicators are weak.
-The Utility/ S&P 500 spread is bearish since
Utilities have been outperforming the S&P 500. When investors are nervous they tend to buy Utilities.
The Bollinger Band indicator is not overbought today and a
Bollinger Band Squeeze is not currently indicated.
On the bullish side, Breadth is ok and the McClellan
Oscillator is bullish, too.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. Cautiously, because indicators
are bullish, but not convincing.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
