NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
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“Combatting stupidity and domestic terrorism.” – Michael Political Commentary from Michael Ramirez at... https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. "I was really the first Democrat to refuse to shut
our government down, and my party was so desperate to pander to shut the
government down. Absurd, absolutely absurd. Six months ago, we were lecturing
the Republicans, ‘You can’t shut the government down.’ Now it’s, ‘Well, yeah,
let’s do these things.’ It’s like that’s part of the problem, to pander, and
they want to pander to the extreme parts of our party, to shut the government
down. I said I will never burn the village down and claim that I’m saving it.”
- Sen. John Fetterman, D-Penn. My cmt: Fetterman was one of 10 Democrats who voted for
the Bill. DURABLE GOODS (Reuters) “Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods
unexpectedly rose in February as businesses rushed to avoid potential price
increases from tariffs, likely boosting capital expenditure in the first
quarter. But the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday did not
change economists' expectations that economic growth was slowing considerably
in the first quarter...” Story at... https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-core-capital-goods-orders-unexpectedly-drop-february-2025-03-26/ CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA) “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.3 million barrels from the
previous week. At 433.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at... https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 5712. -VIX rose about 7% to 18.33. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.354%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce
risk and buy SPY instead.) XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined,
but remained Bullish at +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA of the spread improved again – another bullish sign. On the bear side, the S&P 500 dropped below its
200-dMA. Investors are still trying to decide how much slowing
will be seen in the economy – Economists have the same question but there aren’t
too many answers. Are markets going to re-test the correction low or not?
Unfortunately, I can make a good argument either way. On the bear side, we didn’t
see a successful retest of the low. On the bull side, there have been some very
strong, bullish momentum-indicators after the low. We’ll see... BOTTOM LINE I am cautiously bullish. Indicators suggest the
correction is over, but I have my doubts. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
