Consumer Confidence ... New Home Sales .. Richmond FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 7.2 points in March to 92.9 (1985=100)...‘Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,’ said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board...’Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low.’” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
NEW HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“New home sales increased 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-rebound-february-155839094.html
 
RICHMOND FED COMP INDEX (Richmond FED)
“Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to −4 in March from 6 in February, led by a notable decrease, from 12 to −7, in the shipments index.” Report at... 
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/manufacturing
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5777.
-VIX fell about 2% to 17.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.331% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SSO added 3/24/2025 SOLD 3/25/2025 (Decided to reduce risk and buy SPY instead.)
 
XLK added 3/24/2025
SPY added 3/25/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Bullish +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread improved again – another bullish sign. Indicators are popping higher. The Index is 0.4% above its 200-dMA and has closed above the 200-day on consecutive days. That’s a good sign.  
 
All the signs seem to suggest the correction is over and we have seen the lows. However, I am finding it hard to believe, given all the Trump tariff-talk, DOGE antics and real Russian collusion (Trump has taken the Russian side over the Ukrainians).  
 
The S&P 500 has retraced 40% of its losses from the all-time high back on 19 February. That’s slightly above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, but there are Fibonacci levels at 50% and 62% so the Fibonacci stuff has never appealed to me. The most likely retracement level before a return to the lows is around 50%; it is very possible that markets will retest the lows around 5520. Because of those concerns, I decided to sell my leveraged positions in SSO (2x S&P 500 ETF) for a small profit and swap it for a position in SPY (S&P 500 ETF). Leveraged positions are painful in any kind of downturn.  I can always add SSO later.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. Indicators suggest the correction is over, but I have my doubts.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.