Leading Economic Indicators ... Philly Fed ... Jobless Claims ... Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
TARIFF FLEXIBILITY (CNBC)
“’I don’t change. But the word flexibility is an important word,” he [Trump] said. ‘Sometimes it’s flexibility. So there’ll be flexibility, but basically it’s reciprocal’...Trump and his officials say the plan will effectively assign tariff rates to all countries that have their own tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries with other non-tariff trade policies that the Trump administration opposes, such as value-added taxes, could also be subject to new duties.” Story at...
Https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/trump-says-therell-be-flexibility-on-reciprocal-tariffs.html
 
PHILLY FED (RTT News)
“ A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday said regional manufacturing activity expanded overall but was less widespread in the month of March. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity slid to 12.5 in March after plunging to 18.1 in February, although a positive reading still indicates growth. Economists had expected the index to slump to 8.5.” Story at...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/philly-fed-index-drops-less-expected-march
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS
U.S. jobless claims filings rose by 2,000 to 223,000 for the week ending March 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s just less than the 224,000 new applications analysts forecast... U.S. jobless claims filings rose by 2,000 to 223,000 for the week ending March 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s just less than the 224,000 new applications analysts forecast.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-571954a7ed9bd2966ada9360ea8ad83f
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NA)
“Total existing-home sales  – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – progressed 4.2% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 million in February 2024). ‘Home buyers are slowly entering the market,’ said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. ‘Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.’” Story at...
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February... the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023...we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5668.
-VIX fell about 3% to 19.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.245% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
Currently, the weakness has lasted 22 sessions; the S&P 500 currently has a 7.8% drop from the top and the Index is 1.4% below its 200-dMA. While the S&P 500 finished up slightly today, internals were weak – decliners outpaced advancers by nearly 2 to 1 as did down-volume vs up volume. New-highs had been improving, but they were outpaced by new-lows by almost 4 to 1.
 
The President’s “flexibility” comment (see above) boosted markets late in the day (according to the pundits). Perhaps, but that doesn’t seem different than what we have seen – a lot of negotiation and tariff delays.  We already had flexibility, so it’s hard to feel confident that investors are suddenly ok with tariffs.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral, but declined to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread improved again – a bullish sign.
 
The S&P 500 has not yet managed to break out of its double-top at 5675. Investors seem confused and today’s unchanged volume would confirm that assessment – it was very high.
 
I’m still waiting for investors to make up their minds about the market – should I stay or should I go?
 
As I suggested previously, I think a close above 5675 should probably be bought. If it appears a close above 5675 is in the cards, I would add to stock holdings, but not go all in. I might boost stock holdings to around 40-50%. A retrace to the 5525 level is still possible.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No bottom call yet. I am Neutral on the market with a very conservative allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings. 30% may be too conservative and I will add to stocks as noted above.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals reversed to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – extreme bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.