“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Probably nothing will ever shake President Trump’s belief that illegal immigrants steal job opportunities from Americans. Mr. Trump insists that our labor markets are zero-sum, meaning that a job taken by a newcomer is one fewer job available for someone already here. Yet it’s worth noting that the past decade of fluctuating migration levels and unemployment rates seriously undermines that claim...For the first time since 2021, the number of people looking for work exceeds the number of job openings. It’s another sign that the labor market is softening and that the president’s immigration and tariff policies aren’t having the intended economic effect. If the White House doesn’t do a better job of balancing border security and economic growth, things could get a lot worse before they improve.” - Jason L. Riley, Opinion Columnist, Upward Mobility, The Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-secured-the-border-so-where-are-the-jobs-64cee458?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAguvj7DNdKHe1IMRJQZeGQIfTqpx52_FKdO5992o3GM4pxcct-9AJW7y-OeJEU%3D&gaa_ts=68d0b2f1&gaa_sig=7ZypW0s9avIUrFzofdEM1a6QYQX5-QD22wkTdoeP4KZJjb56Fkxnn99Cm0E7VIu3yRH9DwmUkN2Z8fuu0SOqww%3D%3D
The ‘Oracle of Wall Street’ who predicted 2008 crash sees trouble in US housing — and says boomers aren’t as rich as many think. Why that’s a problem
My cmt: Existing home sales are considered a lagging economic indicator, suggesting that the economy may be worse than it appears on the surface. I am not an economist. Rather than trying to guess the condition of the economy, I follow the stock market. The market tends to be a leading indicator. Currently, market participants are not worried.
“...we see more adjustments in middle and lower-income households than we do with higher-income households. In discretionary categories where item prices have gone up, we see a corresponding moderation in units at the item level as customers switch to other items or in some cases, categories," he [Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart] said. That's very similar to what McDonald's CEO Christopher J. Kempczinski shared during the chain's second-quarter earnings call regarding U.S. consumer behavior. ‘Certainly, overall QSR [Quick Service Restaurant] traffic in the U.S. remained challenging as visits across the industry by low-income consumers once again declined by double digits versus the prior year period. Reengaging the low-income consumer is critical as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle- and high-income consumers,’ he said.” Story at...
Walmart CEO shares customer trend McDonald's boss noticed too
My cmt: I think the problem is sticker shock. A Big Mac meal (sandwich, fries, and a drink) now costs about $9.29 on average nationally. In 2014, the price was about $5.69.
“Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer given that goods ranging from pizzas to ovens are transported in corrugated packaging.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/business/cardboard-box-demand-is-slumping-why-thats-bad-news-for-the-economy-e6ec42da?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAikJKueyuFmO-kVvnC-7P0VWB_tmDlphseuSipf1w_vFDerCLB1qcSvUs3Aqj4%3D&gaa_ts=68d1e144&gaa_sig=e0L1QSDRrcQBtcEHwG3RmnOOZ9ajG0LXhCyktP2pB1Sn6fGiWyK5s64py5EIDPFAwpqkDBV7p4g-ofdWCnpBEg%3D%3D
My cmt: As if we didn’t already have enough to worry about.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6694.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.10. (Options players are expecting more volatility.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.147% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
NOT MUCH CHANGE:
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) {Friday’s number was +4 not +5 as reported Friday} and remains a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
