“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“We’ll admit we didn’t see this coming: President Trump advising pregnant women against using one of the most ubiquitous over-the-counter medicines in America... “Don’t take Tylenol,” Mr. Trump said standing next to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Fight like hell not to take it.” If a drug company made the unproven claims aired at the White House, the Food and Drug Administration would threaten legal action... Some studies have found that neuro-developmental diseases including autism are more common in children of women who use acetaminophen more often during pregnancy. But correlation doesn’t prove causation, and even the evidence of the association is mixed. [Women who eat French fries are prone to having autistic children; that’s why correlation doesn’t prove causation.]...So why the sudden alarm, complete with a presidential presser? The Occam’s razor answer is the influence of RFK Jr., who is carrying water for his friends in the plaintiffs bar. A who’s-who of lawsuit shops are pushing the Tylenol-autism link in federal court. The litigants include the Lanier Law Firm, Beasley Allen, Cooper Law Partners, and Keller Postman. Most have been allies of Mr. Kennedy in other mass torts, such as against the weed-killer Roundup and Merck’s HPV vaccine. Their main lawsuit claim is that Tylenol’s marketer, Kenvue Inc., failed to warn users about an autism-acetaminophen link.
... Perhaps no one told Mr. Trump about this trial lawyer campaign, but the costs of his intervention aren’t benign. He’s raising public fear about a useful medicine in a way that could harm maternal and fetal health. [When a pregnant woman has a fever, it is likely to do more harm than using Tylenol given that the unproven claims associated with Tylenol have been refuted in many reputable studies.] Whatever happened to do no harm?” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. See the full article at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tylenol-acetaminophen-autism-donald-trump-rfk-jr-fda-pregnant-women-548bb877?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: Here ‘s a study on the subject from the Journal of the American Medical Association:
Subject: “Risk of Autism, ADHD, and Intellectual Disability”
Findings: ”Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children’s risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analyses. This suggests that associations observed in other models may have been attributable to confounding.” Study at...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2817406
“There’s no doubt that the 400 richest Americans are coming off a very good 12 months — but over the last decade, they would have done even better had they invested in a broad-market index fund. This provides a powerful investment lesson to the rest of us. Contrary to the belief that the ultrawealthy have some unique investment skills that enable them to regularly beat the stock market, even they, on average, don’t beat the stock market.” Story at...
Even the very rich should invest in broad-market index funds — here’s why
“1. I didn’t start saving early enough...
2. I was too conservative with my investments...
3. I didn’t have a cushion for life’s curve balls...
4. I underestimated health care costs...
5. I blew through my retirement fund too fast...
6. I was too cautious and sacrificed my enjoyment...” Story at...
This writer talked to American retirees to find their biggest money regrets. Are you making the same mistakes?
“The economy [is] growing, but not fast… except in the area of the AI build out, which is just going really strong pretty much [in] many parts of the country,” [Fed Chair ]Powell said. That has created strong demand for AI-related skills while leaving other areas of hiring stalled, a reality which Powell stressed that the Fed has little ability to change. “Our tools work on demand—basically lower interest rates, higher interest rates,” he said. When there are “structural changes” to the economy, there isn’t much more the Fed can do. “We can’t fix the education system,” he said. “That’s for legislators and the private sector. But it matters enormously for the future of our economy.” – Story at...
Jerome Powell says Gen Z without tech skills are getting crushed in the ’low-hire, low-fire’ job market—and colleges are failing them
“Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022...Single-family housing starts and permits slowed in August both from July and from August of last year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/24/august-new-home-sales-soar.html
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 414.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Map from...
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6638.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.18. (Those Options Players can’t make up their minds.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.149% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to Zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators) and remains a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained heading down – a bearish sign.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
My rule is that this signal remains in place for 10-days or until the high of the Outside reversal Day is exceeded.
I am cautiously bullish, I don’t expect a big correction, but I’ll be paying attention to indicators, as always.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
