“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Andy Kessler hit the nail on the head when he said that the socialism’s message of free stuff is being poured into the “ears of young, naive, economically illiterate, free-riding, over-degreed” voters (“Viva la DSA Revolution!,” Inside View, Aug. 10).
When professors teach that the capitalist system is a problem and ignore the horrible history of socialism and communist experiments around the world, this is what you get. The message of free stuff for all might be attracting votes, but voters should know it comes at the expense of freedom and economic growth. The U.S. is the best economy on the planet—let’s not permit socialism to undermine it.”
Jack Kent Letter to Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/plant-the-seeds-of-freedom-5e8326f0?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos21
“A selloff in global bonds is driving up borrowing costs for governments, businesses and families across the developed world. Wall Street sees no end in sight.
Bond yields are at 19-year highs, and investors are blaming the rout on everything from the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has stoked inflation worries, to the deluge of tech-company bonds vying for debt funds’ cash. They are also anxious about budget deficits and a lack of clarity from a new Federal Reserve chairman…So far, the selloff has been limited to bonds. Stocks are hovering near record highs and corporate earnings are still robust—signs that higher interest payments aren’t squeezing economic growth…’The issue is not so much the rising interest rates,’ said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute. ‘The issue is the deficit. If we can only be concerned about one thing, that one thing should be the 10-year deficit outlook.’” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bonds-are-getting-hammered-and-wall-street-says-the-rout-wont-end-anytime-soon-895e0ad8?mod=djem10point
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7674.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.736% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators Improved from -6 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
