“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the
first time in three weeks, suggesting employers are still largely holding on to
their workers. Initial claims decreased by 9,000 to 218,000 in the week
ended Feb. 3...” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/us-initial-jobless-claims-drop-for-the-first-time-in-three-weeks
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4998.
-VIX declined about 0.3% to 12.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.154%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
5.4% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high today, 8 February 2024. The
5-year average was for this stat is roughly 6.7%. The new-high data at the new
all-time high is still below average, but not drastically so.
The below chart (Junk Bond vs S&P 500 spread) isn’t one of my indicators, but a lot of investors
think that Junk Bonds foretell trouble when they diverge from the S&P
500. We're seeing that now – the smoothed
spread (green line) is falling hard while the Index is climbing. There are also other bearish divergences that
are in my system. We’ll get a
look at those tomorrow when I do the Friday rundown of indicators.
I’ll be selling UWM (leveraged Russel 2000) if Bollinger
Bands & RSI become overbought. They
are both very close now. I don’t want to hold leveraged ETF’s if the markets become
weak.
Repeating yesterday’s note: The S&P 500 closed 12.1%
above its 200-day moving average (200-dMA) and 5% above its 50-dMA. Both of those suggest a stretched market that
may be due for some weakness. This signal is a warning of possible trouble, but
I am not going to make any investment changes unless I see more weakness in the
indicators. These stats are not good for timing, but they are first warning
signs.
The “Friday Summary of Indicators” (about 50 Indicators) has
moved to the Bull side, but it remains close to neutral.
The daily spread of 20 short-term Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from -1 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives
are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +24 to +23. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. I
am closely watching indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"I cannot vote for this [Border fix] bill. Americans
will turn to the upcoming election to end the border crisis." - Senator
John Barrasso of Wyoming, Republican.
My cmt: This is so stupid. If Trump is elected, Democrats won’t vote for
the bill and it only passes if Republicans hold the house and flip the Senate. If
Biden wins, Democrats AND Republicans won’t vote for the Bill. Now is
the time!
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels from the
previous week. At 427.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
TRUMP PUNTS ON THE BORDER (WSJ)
“Is Donald Trump unnecessary
and useless after all?
He made immigration the keystone of his 2015 entry into
presidential politics, but it took almost nine years to get a serious
immigration bill past the starting gate in Congress...if today’s bill doesn’t
pass, Democrats will be back to opposing it next year no matter who wins the
election...Now is the time to get a meaningful bill passed. The opportunity is
unlikely to return even in another Trump presidency... When the blowback comes,
make sure to save some blame for Donald Trump, the man who was supposed to get
things done.” – Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., columnist, editorial writer, and member
of The Wall Street Journal editorial board. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-punts-on-the-border-rather-than-get-things-done-immigration-failure-campaign-7ae4dcbb
"I saw former President Trump make that allegation
today on one of his social media posts: 'All a president has to do is declare
the border is closed, and it's closed.' Well, with all due respect, that didn't
happen in 2017, '18, '19 and '20. There were millions of people that came into
the United States during those four years."- Representative Chip Roy,
Texas, Republican.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4995.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at
4.094.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 closed 12.1% above its 200-day moving
average (200-dMA) and 5.1% above its 50-dMA.
Both of those suggest a stretched market that may be due for some
weakness. When the 200-dMA stat reaches 12%, I start to get concerned, but it is
possible for the Index to get as high as 20% above its 200-dMA. That is a
rare event. The last time the S&P 500 was more than 12% above its 200-dMA
was in August of 2021. The Index fell
about 7% over the next 6-months. This signal is a warning of possible trouble,
but I am not going to make any investment changes unless I see more weakness in
the indicators. These stats are not good for timing, but they are first warning
signs.
The “Friday Summary of Indicators” (about 50 Indicators) remains
close to neutral.
The daily spread of 20 short-term Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from -2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives
are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +26 to +24. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. I am closely watching indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
BORDER BILL WORTH PASSING (WSJ)
“The Senate bill has reforms Trump never came close to
getting...
Do Republicans want to better secure the U.S. border, or
do they want to keep what has become an open sore festering for another year as
an election issue? That’s the choice presented to Congress this week with the rollout
of the Senate’s bipartisan border security bill, and we’ll soon learn what the
GOP really wants.” - WSJ Editorial Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-border-security-bill-james-lankford-republicans-immigration-biden-border-patrol-asylum-bc2f9543
My cmt: This Bill doesn’t get everything the Republicans
want, but they don’t have a Senate majority and they don’t have the Presidency.
The smart thing to do is to take the deal now. They can make additional changes
next year IF they win the Senate and Presidency and hold on to a House
majority. It appears on its surface to be a very good first step. It is folly to
let Trump sabotage the bill (Trump is lobbying the House to kill it) so he can
campaign on the immigration issue. This strategy risks further alienating independent
voters and shows again that Trump is all about himself. He does not care what is best for the country.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4954.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.06.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.090.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Breadth improved today as the 10-dMA of issues advancing
on the NYSE improved and finished above 50%. The Hindenburg Omen did not
repeat. That’s good too, since this indicator is more reliable if there are
multiple Omen indications.
I’d like to think the weakness is over, but RSI is still
stubbornly high and that value may need to fall farther to clear overly bullish
conditions. Sentiment is 94%-bulls based on the 5-day average of Bulls divided
by Bulls+Bears on selected Rydex, Bull / Bear mutual funds. That’s high, but
not to such an extreme that would give a bearish signal.
The “Friday Summary of Indicators” indicator fell hard Monday
and moved into bearish territory with a spread of -2 (Bull minus bears). -2 is
close to neutral so it’s not too bearish. Today, that indicator spread improved
to +4. We’ll see if this one continues to improve.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -6 to -2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +30 to +26.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. Am
closely watching indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“One internet pundit has posted a video, with hundreds of
thousands of views, claiming that Ms. Swift’s relationship with Mr. Kelce is a
fake “psyop.” This yarn involves the CIA, because of course, as well
as George Soros, because of course. The story is that the Super Bowl on
Feb. 11 will be rigged so that the Chiefs win in a dramatic fashion. Ms. Swift
and Mr. Kelce will get engaged. That way they’ll be at peak influence to cut a
joint October ad for Mr. Biden... Maybe the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl, or
maybe not... But the CIA isn’t orchestrating it all, and neither are the
Illuminati, the Freemasons, Elvis, JFK, Bigfoot, Opus Dei, or alien lizard
people living among us.
A question, though, for the trolls: If they believe
defeating Mr. Trump is so easy that Mr. Biden can do it merely by getting an
endorsement from a singer who backed him in 2020, doesn’t that suggest the GOP
might be making a mistake by nominating such a weak candidate? – WSJ Editorial
Staff.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taylor-swift-psyop-theory-donald-trump-travis-kelce-nfl-kansas-city-chiefs-joe-biden-288d7091
DISQUALIFY TRUMP?
The Supreme Court will hear arguments Thursday regarding
whether Trump should be disqualified as a candidate for President. Here’s a link
to a video with U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey explaining why the
Supreme Court will not disqualify Trump from the Colorado ballot (or anywhere
else). Mr. Mukasey says the President is not covered by the disqualification
clause because the position is not an Officer of the Untied States. He cites
several reasons in the wording of the Constitution, among them: The
Presidential oath is different than the oath for Officers of the United States.
The President appoints Officers of the United States. Mukasey said, “He doesn’t
appoint himself; therefore, he is not an Officer of the United States.” See the
6-minute video at...
WSJ
Opinion: Will the Supreme Court Let Colorado Bar Trump From the Ballot? | Watch
(msn.com)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for
the 15th consecutive month following one month of
“unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth
prior to that...” Press release at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/january/
“I do not believe a big decline is coming. Markets may
just move sideways and work off some of the issues. They also may pull back a
few percent. This could be the very start of building the Q1 peak I am looking
for or I could be totally wrong and stocks soar even more into orbit.” – Paul
Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/sell-the-news-buy-the-news-scratch-your-head-on-the-news/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 4943.
-VIX declined about 1.3% to 13.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.162.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The CNBC crowd discussed the magnificent 7 stocks and how
they are carrying the entire market. The mid-day question was, “Is the rally
too narrow?” My answer is, No. As we
mentioned last in the Friday Indicator update, 6% of all issues traded on the
NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high on 2
February 2024. We also know that the 5-year average was for this stat is
roughly 6.7%. We can conclude that the new-high data at the new all-time high was
still below average, but not drastically so. It would have to be more than half
of Friday’s value before I’d get concerned.
On the other side, the 10-dMA of stocks advancing on the
NYSE dropped below 50%. In simple terms,
that means that less than half of the issues on the NYSE have been up over the
last 10-days. That’s an early warning for breadth and we’ll have to watch this
stat going forward. There were other bearish signs.
Today there was a Hindenburg Omen. Investopedia says, “The
Hindenburg Omen is a technical
indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of
a stock market
crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in
stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to
predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash...
The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that
under normal conditions, some stocks are either making new 52-week highs or new
52-week lows. It would be abnormal if both were occurring at the same time.” From
Investopedia at...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp
Neither the long-term or short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic
indicators are bearish. They are both
closer to giving bullish indications. Those indicators also look at the number
of new-highs and new-lows in a somewhat similar style of analysis as the Hindenburg
Omen indicator. It is well known that the Hindenburg is not always right. The last time we saw an Omen was last fall
during the 10% correction. The market
did fall about 5% after the Omen occurred, but that is hardly a crash.
The summary of indicators on Friday was bullish. They fell hard today and moved into bearish
territory with a spread of -2 (Bull minus bears). The 10-dMA of the spread also
fell today for the first time since mid-January. That’s a concern, but I won’t
worry too much until we see more indicators flashing warnings.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +4 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +40 to +30.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but indicators deteriorated today and
we’ll need to watch where they go from here.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
Political Commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-kicking-the-can-01?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
“The Treasury Department is set to release its latest
borrowing plan on Wednesday, a once-routine event that lately has fueled market
swings thanks to concerns about the federal budget deficit.” – WSJ. Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/what-investors-need-to-know-about-the-u-s-governments-borrowing-plans-40e9a0e2
My cmt: The budget deficit is now affecting stock and bond
markets – this can’t end well. Will it
end soon? No one knows.
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE / HOURLY EARNINGS (Yahoo
Finance)
“The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in
January, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
released Friday, more than the 185,000 expected by economists... The
unemployment rate also held steady in January at 3.7% for the third straight
month... Wages, a closely watched indicator of inflation and a gauge of how
much leverage workers have in the labor market, increased 0.6% on a monthly
basis and 4.5% over last year” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/january-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-353000-jobs-blowing-past-wall-street-expectations-133251408.html
FACTORY ORDERS (US News)
“Factory orders gained 0.2% after rebounding 2.6% in
November... Orders increased 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in December.” Story
at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-02-02/us-factory-orders-rise-moderately-in-december
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4959.
-VIX declined slightly to 13.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.024.
(The Bond market didn’t like the jobs report. We’re seeing plenty of signs of
slowing economy, just not in the jobs market.)
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024. It had a weak day today based on
higher interest rates.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor
for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects
earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in
sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of
revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The jobs report was a blowout to the up side – good for
employees, but it shows an economy that may be too strong for the Federal
Reserve. I have a friend who has an
MBA. He was taught in business school
that 4% was the lowest possible unemployment rate. Now, it’s 3.7% suggesting a
hot economy that may drive inflation higher because of worker shortages. “Higher
for longer” was the Fed’s mantra regarding interest rates. Today, the expectation is possibly for a lot
longer.
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These
indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than
the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators remained
Bullish this week: now 5-bear and 18-bull.
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The
10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) is above 50%.
-The
100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the
S&P 500.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 22
Jan.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October
(based on std deviation of spread). Expired
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of
up-days).
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than
the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the
High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high
up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-61% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
NEUTRAL
-There was a Distribution Day 31 Jan, but one does not
send a signal.
-There have been 4 Statistically-Significant days (big
moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment got very bearish recently due to
the continued march higher. Too much bearishness is bullish, but it is back to
neutral now.)
-Bollinger Bands.
-The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(Breadth) has not been below 50%
for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is almost 11.6% above its 200-dMA. (Neutral
for now, but the Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 2 February 2024. (There is
no bullish signal for this indicator.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 13 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-RSI.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top
warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023
– expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day,
but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28
December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a
rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative ending
this signal.
BEAR SIGNS
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE
(breadth) made a bullish crossover 22 January.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20
December 2021), 9 days before the top of the 2-year long 25% correction, there
were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 5 bear-signs and 18-Bull.
Last week, there were 5 bear-sign and 20 bull-signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +2 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +33 to +41.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Allies of former President Donald Trump are ramping up
criticism of Taylor Swift and spreading conspiracy theories about the pop
superstar.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/trump-allies-target-taylor-swift-ahead-of-super-bowl.html?recirc=taboolainternal
My cmt: Out of curiosity, I wasted my time reading this
article. Most of the “criticism” consisted of a few off-hand comments. How
absurd. There is no there, there. It’s
click bait.
“Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist at the University of Oxford, claims that doomsday warnings of
floods, widespread famine and deaths from disasters are overshadowing the
progress that has been quietly made in recent years. She pointed out how
emissions per person peaked in 2012 and remained the same since...the dreaded
2.7F of warming is not a tipping point into oblivion.” Story at...
Scientist
who thought we 'we're all going to die from climate change' reveals 7 reasons
she was wrong - and how the issue is being overblown (msn.com)
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose
last week to the highest level in 11 weeks, though layoffs remain at
historically low levels. Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to
224,000 for the week ending Jan. 27, an increase of 9,000 from the previous
week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b5e0c38e5c686b37595a3b8b89900144
PRODUCTIVITY / UNIT LABOR COSTS (Marketwatch)
“The productivity of U.S. businesses and their workers
rose in the fourth quarter at 2.7% pace compared with a year earlier, possibly
a sign the economy could grow faster than expected even as inflation slows.
Productivity advanced 3.3% in the fourth quarter... Unit-labor costs rose a
modest 0.5% in the quarter and 2.3% over the past year.” Story at...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/productivity-rises-rapidly-again-in-good-sign-for-u-s-economy-92f09bbf
ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for
the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of
growth...The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up
0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November.” Press release
at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 4906.
-VIX declined about 3% to 13.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.882.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor
for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects
earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in
sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of
revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. (Yes,
today there was another one. Yesterday was a Stat-Sig down-day.) That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about
60% of the time. Back and forth Statistically Significant days can signal a top,
since it shows investor confusion and the down-days are often Distribution
Days. It would take more than 2 in a row, but if we see more, it may be time to
look closely for other signs of a short-term top. Today, there aren’t any obvious Top Indicators signaling
a top.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +3 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +33.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
