“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Allies of former President Donald Trump are ramping up
criticism of Taylor Swift and spreading conspiracy theories about the pop
superstar.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/trump-allies-target-taylor-swift-ahead-of-super-bowl.html?recirc=taboolainternal
My cmt: Out of curiosity, I wasted my time reading this article. Most of the “criticism” consisted of a few off-hand comments. How absurd. There is no there, there. It’s click bait.
“Hannah Ritchie, a data scientist at the University of Oxford, claims that doomsday warnings of
floods, widespread famine and deaths from disasters are overshadowing the
progress that has been quietly made in recent years. She pointed out how
emissions per person peaked in 2012 and remained the same since...the dreaded
2.7F of warming is not a tipping point into oblivion.” Story at...
Scientist who thought we 'we're all going to die from climate change' reveals 7 reasons she was wrong - and how the issue is being overblown (msn.com)
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in 11 weeks, though layoffs remain at historically low levels. Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 224,000 for the week ending Jan. 27, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b5e0c38e5c686b37595a3b8b89900144
PRODUCTIVITY / UNIT LABOR COSTS (Marketwatch)
“The productivity of U.S. businesses and their workers rose in the fourth quarter at 2.7% pace compared with a year earlier, possibly a sign the economy could grow faster than expected even as inflation slows. Productivity advanced 3.3% in the fourth quarter... Unit-labor costs rose a modest 0.5% in the quarter and 2.3% over the past year.” Story at...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/productivity-rises-rapidly-again-in-good-sign-for-u-s-economy-92f09bbf
ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth...The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November.” Press release at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 4906.
-VIX declined about 3% to 13.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.882.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. (Yes, today there was another one. Yesterday was a Stat-Sig down-day.) That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Back and forth Statistically Significant days can signal a top, since it shows investor confusion and the down-days are often Distribution Days. It would take more than 2 in a row, but if we see more, it may be time to look closely for other signs of a short-term top. Today, there aren’t any obvious Top Indicators signaling a top.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +3 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +33.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/30/trump-allies-target-taylor-swift-ahead-of-super-bowl.html?recirc=taboolainternal
My cmt: Out of curiosity, I wasted my time reading this article. Most of the “criticism” consisted of a few off-hand comments. How absurd. There is no there, there. It’s click bait.
Scientist who thought we 'we're all going to die from climate change' reveals 7 reasons she was wrong - and how the issue is being overblown (msn.com)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose last week to the highest level in 11 weeks, though layoffs remain at historically low levels. Applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 224,000 for the week ending Jan. 27, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b5e0c38e5c686b37595a3b8b89900144
“The productivity of U.S. businesses and their workers rose in the fourth quarter at 2.7% pace compared with a year earlier, possibly a sign the economy could grow faster than expected even as inflation slows. Productivity advanced 3.3% in the fourth quarter... Unit-labor costs rose a modest 0.5% in the quarter and 2.3% over the past year.” Story at...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/productivity-rises-rapidly-again-in-good-sign-for-u-s-economy-92f09bbf
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth...The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November.” Press release at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.3% to 4906.
-VIX declined about 3% to 13.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.882.
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. (Yes, today there was another one. Yesterday was a Stat-Sig down-day.) That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. Back and forth Statistically Significant days can signal a top, since it shows investor confusion and the down-days are often Distribution Days. It would take more than 2 in a row, but if we see more, it may be time to look closely for other signs of a short-term top. Today, there aren’t any obvious Top Indicators signaling a top.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
