Trump Kills the Border Bill ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
"I cannot vote for this [Border fix] bill. Americans will turn to the upcoming election to end the border crisis." - Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, Republican.
My cmt: This is so stupid.  If Trump is elected, Democrats won’t vote for the bill and it only passes if Republicans hold the house and flip the Senate. If Biden wins, Democrats AND Republicans won’t vote for the Bill. Now is the time!
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 427.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
TRUMP PUNTS ON THE BORDER (WSJ)
“Is Donald Trump unnecessary and useless after all?
He made immigration the keystone of his 2015 entry into presidential politics, but it took almost nine years to get a serious immigration bill past the starting gate in Congress...if today’s bill doesn’t pass, Democrats will be back to opposing it next year no matter who wins the election...Now is the time to get a meaningful bill passed. The opportunity is unlikely to return even in another Trump presidency... When the blowback comes, make sure to save some blame for Donald Trump, the man who was supposed to get things done.” – Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., columnist, editorial writer, and member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-punts-on-the-border-rather-than-get-things-done-immigration-failure-campaign-7ae4dcbb
 
"I saw former President Trump make that allegation today on one of his social media posts: 'All a president has to do is declare the border is closed, and it's closed.' Well, with all due respect, that didn't happen in 2017, '18, '19 and '20. There were millions of people that came into the United States during those four years."- Representative Chip Roy, Texas, Republican.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4995.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.094.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 closed 12.1% above its 200-day moving average (200-dMA) and 5.1% above its 50-dMA.  Both of those suggest a stretched market that may be due for some weakness. When the 200-dMA stat reaches 12%, I start to get concerned, but it is possible for the Index to get as high as 20% above its 200-dMA. That is a rare event. The last time the S&P 500 was more than 12% above its 200-dMA was in August of 2021.  The Index fell about 7% over the next 6-months. This signal is a warning of possible trouble, but I am not going to make any investment changes unless I see more weakness in the indicators. These stats are not good for timing, but they are first warning signs.
 
The “Friday Summary of Indicators” (about 50 Indicators) remains close to neutral.
 
The daily spread of 20 short-term Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +26 to +24. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.  I am closely watching indicators.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.