Trump Disqualified? ... ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“One internet pundit has posted a video, with hundreds of
thousands of views, claiming that Ms. Swift’s relationship with Mr. Kelce is a
fake “psyop.” This yarn involves the CIA, because of course, as well
as George Soros, because of course. The story is that the Super Bowl on
Feb. 11 will be rigged so that the Chiefs win in a dramatic fashion. Ms. Swift
and Mr. Kelce will get engaged. That way they’ll be at peak influence to cut a
joint October ad for Mr. Biden... Maybe the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl, or
maybe not... But the CIA isn’t orchestrating it all, and neither are the
Illuminati, the Freemasons, Elvis, JFK, Bigfoot, Opus Dei, or alien lizard
people living among us.
A question, though, for the trolls: If they believe
defeating Mr. Trump is so easy that Mr. Biden can do it merely by getting an
endorsement from a singer who backed him in 2020, doesn’t that suggest the GOP
might be making a mistake by nominating such a weak candidate? – WSJ Editorial
Staff.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/taylor-swift-psyop-theory-donald-trump-travis-kelce-nfl-kansas-city-chiefs-joe-biden-288d7091
DISQUALIFY TRUMP?
The Supreme Court will hear arguments Thursday regarding
whether Trump should be disqualified as a candidate for President. Here’s a link
to a video with U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey explaining why the
Supreme Court will not disqualify Trump from the Colorado ballot (or anywhere
else). Mr. Mukasey says the President is not covered by the disqualification
clause because the position is not an Officer of the Untied States. He cites
several reasons in the wording of the Constitution, among them: The
Presidential oath is different than the oath for Officers of the United States.
The President appoints Officers of the United States. Mukasey said, “He doesn’t
appoint himself; therefore, he is not an Officer of the United States.” See the
6-minute video at...
WSJ
Opinion: Will the Supreme Court Let Colorado Bar Trump From the Ballot? | Watch
(msn.com)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for
the 15th consecutive month following one month of
“unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth
prior to that...” Press release at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/january/
“I do not believe a big decline is coming. Markets may
just move sideways and work off some of the issues. They also may pull back a
few percent. This could be the very start of building the Q1 peak I am looking
for or I could be totally wrong and stocks soar even more into orbit.” – Paul
Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/sell-the-news-buy-the-news-scratch-your-head-on-the-news/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 4943.
-VIX declined about 1.3% to 13.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.162.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The CNBC crowd discussed the magnificent 7 stocks and how
they are carrying the entire market. The mid-day question was, “Is the rally
too narrow?” My answer is, No. As we
mentioned last in the Friday Indicator update, 6% of all issues traded on the
NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high on 2
February 2024. We also know that the 5-year average was for this stat is
roughly 6.7%. We can conclude that the new-high data at the new all-time high was
still below average, but not drastically so. It would have to be more than half
of Friday’s value before I’d get concerned.
On the other side, the 10-dMA of stocks advancing on the
NYSE dropped below 50%. In simple terms,
that means that less than half of the issues on the NYSE have been up over the
last 10-days. That’s an early warning for breadth and we’ll have to watch this
stat going forward. There were other bearish signs.
Today there was a Hindenburg Omen. Investopedia says, “The
Hindenburg Omen is a technical
indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of
a stock market
crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in
stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to
predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash...
The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that
under normal conditions, some stocks are either making new 52-week highs or new
52-week lows. It would be abnormal if both were occurring at the same time.” From
Investopedia at...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp
Neither the long-term or short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic
indicators are bearish. They are both
closer to giving bullish indications. Those indicators also look at the number
of new-highs and new-lows in a somewhat similar style of analysis as the Hindenburg
Omen indicator. It is well known that the Hindenburg is not always right. The last time we saw an Omen was last fall
during the 10% correction. The market
did fall about 5% after the Omen occurred, but that is hardly a crash.
The summary of indicators on Friday was bullish. They fell hard today and moved into bearish
territory with a spread of -2 (Bull minus bears). The 10-dMA of the spread also
fell today for the first time since mid-January. That’s a concern, but I won’t
worry too much until we see more indicators flashing warnings.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +4 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +40 to +30.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but indicators deteriorated today and
we’ll need to watch where they go from here.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
