Border Bill ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
BORDER BILL WORTH PASSING (WSJ)
“The Senate bill has reforms Trump never came close to
getting...
Do Republicans want to better secure the U.S. border, or
do they want to keep what has become an open sore festering for another year as
an election issue? That’s the choice presented to Congress this week with the rollout
of the Senate’s bipartisan border security bill, and we’ll soon learn what the
GOP really wants.” - WSJ Editorial Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-border-security-bill-james-lankford-republicans-immigration-biden-border-patrol-asylum-bc2f9543
My cmt: This Bill doesn’t get everything the Republicans
want, but they don’t have a Senate majority and they don’t have the Presidency.
The smart thing to do is to take the deal now. They can make additional changes
next year IF they win the Senate and Presidency and hold on to a House
majority. It appears on its surface to be a very good first step. It is folly to
let Trump sabotage the bill (Trump is lobbying the House to kill it) so he can
campaign on the immigration issue. This strategy risks further alienating independent
voters and shows again that Trump is all about himself. He does not care what is best for the country.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4954.
-VIX declined about 4% to 13.06.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.090.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Breadth improved today as the 10-dMA of issues advancing
on the NYSE improved and finished above 50%. The Hindenburg Omen did not
repeat. That’s good too, since this indicator is more reliable if there are
multiple Omen indications.
I’d like to think the weakness is over, but RSI is still
stubbornly high and that value may need to fall farther to clear overly bullish
conditions. Sentiment is 94%-bulls based on the 5-day average of Bulls divided
by Bulls+Bears on selected Rydex, Bull / Bear mutual funds. That’s high, but
not to such an extreme that would give a bearish signal.
The “Friday Summary of Indicators” indicator fell hard Monday
and moved into bearish territory with a spread of -2 (Bull minus bears). -2 is
close to neutral so it’s not too bearish. Today, that indicator spread improved
to +4. We’ll see if this one continues to improve.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -6 to -2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +30 to +26.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. Am
closely watching indicators.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
