Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“MAGA, the Republicans and Fox News have done to our
parents what they said video games would do to us and what their parents said
rock and roll music would do to them.” - Patrick Blake. Virginian-Pilot letters
to the editor.
“They've been saying, 'It's 2016, again' through three
losing election cycles. No, it's 2012, again. That's when Trump tried to run
for president by activating the crazies, crashed and burned.” - Anne Coulter, Conservative
author, columnist and lawyer.
“The use of climate policy to soak Americans keeps
getting worse, and the United Nation’s climate conference in Egypt ended this
weekend with agreement on a new fund to pay reparations to poor countries.
Welcome to the latest climate shakedown...China emits two-thirds more CO2 than
Europe and the U.S. combined. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power
generation, and more new coal plants are set for approval through 2025 than the
entire existing U.S. fleet. China says it needs more coal power for energy
security and, unlike Europe and the U.S., it won’t commit climate suicide...
...All of this ignores the benefits for humanity, rich
and poor, that economic growth spurred by capitalism have provided. American
taxpayers are being asked to pay because the U.S. industrialized first and then
lifted billions of people out of poverty via investment and trade.” WSJ
commentary at... https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-signs-up-for-climate-change-reparations-europe-fund-un-john-kerry-poor-countries-bank-capitalism-11668974219
Once again, we must note that the President does not have
the authority to appropriate funds – that belongs to Congress. Nor does the
President have the authority to approve treaties – that belongs to the Senate. (That’s
why these treaties are called agreements or accords.) Either way, we again see
a President acting like a King.
“Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. is “certainly” still in
the middle of a Covid-19 pandemic and he is “very troubled” by the divisive
state of American politics.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/27/the-us-is-certainly-still-in-a-covid-19-pandemic-dr-fauci-says.html
I am not a Fauci hater as many on the right seem to be. I
wonder about his comment, though. My daughter, the ER Nurse, says that the
biggest problem in her hospital now is the Flu. It is killing a lot of people
(old, Infirm, immunocompromised); Covid is not. Nationwide, Covid numbers are
in the general area of 40,000 cases per day. CDC reports that there have been
4.4-million Flu illnesses this season and it just got underway in the fall.
EXTREME READINGS FOR McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR FOR BONDS
(McClellan Financial Publications)
“Very high readings in this particular RAMO are
associated with topping events for T-Bond prices. That may not mean they
top on the exact same day, but the point is that these are markers of price
exhaustion...The point we should take from this chart is that the slight upturn
in bond prices has exhausted itself, and we are more likely to see the
downtrend in bond prices resume, rather than this being the start of a new
price uptrend for bonds.
Analysis and charts from...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/extreme_reading_on_mcclellan_oscillator_for_bonds/
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today was a statistically significant down-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about
60% of the time.
It would have been good if the markets had shown some
life in late-day action, but that was not to be. The S&P 500 fell into the close as did all
of the major indeces.
I’ll consider taking some profits if we see another big
down-day tomorrow, but it is too early to panic. The lower trend line is around
3900, so a drop to that level woudn’t mean much as long as it holds.
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a
weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators was very bullish
(5-bear and 15-bull). For the most part, indicators remained bulish today, Monday,
but that probably won’t last if this choppiness continues.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +15 to
+9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +153 to +148. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME and SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX, &
PRICE are bullish. (The important Buy
signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my
first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis
of retests of the June low.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577
on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest
those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested
in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75%
stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index.
I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious
bear signs.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
