“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped 1pt to 4026.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 20. 50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.688%.
-Drop from Top: 16.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 226-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.8% Below its 200-dMA & 6.2% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.)
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
I mentioned a high daily sum of indicators Wednesday. My list of 20 Indicators was 21. That’s Bullish indicators minus Bearish and one might think that a sum larger than 20 would be impossible. It would be, but there are a couple of indicators that get weighted at +2 or -2 in the summation list, depending on whether they are bullish or bearish, so a number greater than 20 is possible. I’ve never had a sum larger than 20...until Wednesday.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 13 Oct.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 26 Oct.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-10 and 11 Nov were high up-volume days at 87% and 77%. That’s close enough to back-to-back 80% up-volume days, so I’ll call this one bullish. There have not been any more extreme volume signals since then.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outpacing the S&P 500.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is above the 10-day so short-term momentum is bullish.)
-McClellan Oscillator.
-59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The short-term, 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 is neutral.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-There was a Follow-through Day 10 November, but 1 is not enough to give a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The S&P 500 is 0.8% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign, but it was a long time ago - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-S&P 500 is outperforming the Utilities (XLU), but the spread is falling sharply so call it neutral.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row below 50% giving me a “correction-now” signal. – Tell me something I didn’t know.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
