“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings
when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But
now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy
goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to
democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in October to 91.3, which is the 10th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, three points higher than September’s reading and four points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979. ‘Owners continue to show a dismal view about future sales growth and business conditions, but are still looking to hire new workers,’ said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. ‘Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services.’” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 3828.
-VIX went the wrong way and rose about 5% to 25.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.134%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 20.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 214-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.4% Below its 200-dMA & 0.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA. (It’s good to see the Index above its 50-day.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already
owned a small position in CVX.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Election day rally continues. The mid-term, Presidential cycle suggests a significant rally at least though the end of the year.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +9 to
+8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations slipped from +110 to +101. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral;
PRICE is bullish.
Bottom line: I’m a still a Bull. I haven’t seen many
signs that would change my mind. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October.
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested
in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75%
stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious
bear signs. It may be time to take profits...we’ll see.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in October to 91.3, which is the 10th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, three points higher than September’s reading and four points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979. ‘Owners continue to show a dismal view about future sales growth and business conditions, but are still looking to hire new workers,’ said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. ‘Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services.’” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 3828.
-VIX went the wrong way and rose about 5% to 25.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.134%.
-Drop from Top: 20.2% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 214-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.4% Below its 200-dMA & 0.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA. (It’s good to see the Index above its 50-day.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
Election day rally continues. The mid-term, Presidential cycle suggests a significant rally at least though the end of the year.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
