“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Home sales declined for the ninth straight month in October, as higher interest rates and surging inflation kept buyers on the sidelines. Sales of previously owned homes dropped 5.9% from September to October, according to the National Association of Realtors.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/18/home-sales-fell-for-ninth-straight-month-in-october.html
“The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8 percent year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023.”
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-nov-2022
-Friday the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 3965.
-VIX slipped about 3% to 23.12.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.827%.
-Drop from Top: 17.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 222-days.
The S&P 500 is 22.5% Below its 200-dMA & 4.6% above its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.)
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing well compared to the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
My VIX indicator turned Bullish again today. The VIX indicator is a good one so that’s a good sign.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 13 Oct.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 26 Oct.
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s another solid bottom sign at a retest.
-My Money Trend indicator is headed up.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outpacing the S&P 500.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is above the 10-day so short-term momentum is bullish.)
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November.
-S&P 500 is outperforming the Utilities (XLU).
-10 and 11 Nov were high up-volume days at 87% and 77%. That’s close enough to back-to-back 80% up-volume days, so I’ll call this one bullish. There have not been any more extreme volume signals since then.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-Bollinger Bands - overbought.
-RSI
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 are flat. (Breadth is neutral to the Index.)
-There was a Follow-through Day 10 November, but 1 is not enough to give a signal.
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The short-term, 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-The S&P 500 is 2.5% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign, but it was a long time ago - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row below 50% giving me a “correction-now” signal. – Tell me something I didn’t know.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is down.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
