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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The U.S. job market remains healthy as fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, despite the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes... Applications for jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 12 fell by 4,000 to 222,000 from 226,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average rose by 2,000 to 221,000.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-file-jobless-benefits-week-93477400
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“House construction in the U.S. declined in October more than expected, while the number of permits for single-family homes tumbled... Residential starts — including both single- and multi-family units — decreased 4.2% last month... Applications to build — an indication of future expected activity — slid 2.4%...” Story at...
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-starts-and-permits-drop-in-october-134714519.html
 
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (RTT News)

“A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday showed regional manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted at a faster rate in the month of November. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current activity tumbled to a negative 19.4 in November...” 

Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3326730/philly-fed-index-slumps-to-lowest-level-since-may-2020.aspx
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 3947.
-VIX bucked the trend (again) and slipped about 2% to 23.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.771%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 221-days.
The S&P 500 is 3% Below its 200-dMA & 4.1% above its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF  (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing well compared to the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

The 40-day chart of new-highs indicates an uptrend after the October lows. So far, it looks like the trend should continue.

Today (Thursday) unchanged volume was high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. My problem is that it is frequently a false signal. This indicator was correct the last time we saw it. Now it may be suggesting a drop to the lower trend line; that would be around 3850-3900. It also may be just indicating the differing opinions we hear from market Pundits. The Pundits seem to think we are headed to new highs or new lows depending on who’s talking. I won’t put too much faith in this one indicator.
 
Let’s see what the Friday run-down looks like tomorrow. Most short-term indicators remain very bullish; so do the long-term, for that matter.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +14 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +95 to +103. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT and VIX are neutral; VOLUME & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.