“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
There’s no other justice who does that. I try, but he does it better. He cares about people. Now, he cares on legal interests differently. And he sees those legal issues much differently than I do. I tell people, you know Clarence believes, just like him, because he grew up very, very poor, that everyone is capable of picking themselves up by their bootstraps. I understand that some people can’t reach their bootstraps. That’s a fundamental difference in how we view what the law can or should or does do for people. But I can appreciate him.- Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, lecture at Roosevelt University in Chicago.
“The latest (and one of the most disturbing) examples [of censorship] is a letter signed by hundreds of “literary figures” last week to get companies to block publication of a book by Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett because they disagree with her judicial philosophy. After all, why burn books when you can effectively ban them? The public letter entitled “We Dissent” makes the usual absurd protestation that, just because we are seeking to ban books of those with opposing views, we still “care deeply about freedom of speech.” They simply justify their anti-free speech position by insisting that any harm “in the form of censorship” is less than “the form of assault on inalienable human rights” in opposing abortion or other constitutional rights. Yet, the letter is not simply dangerous. It is perfectly delusional. While calling for the book to be blocked, the writers bizarrely insist “we are not calling for censorship.”... For a writer to be against free speech is like an athlete being against exercise. It is the defining right for our country and an existential right for writers and academics. Commentary at...
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/11/03/censoring-in-the-name-of-free-speech-publishers-and-editors-call-for-banning-barrett-book/#more-196057
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and a practicing criminal defense attorney.
“Overall, 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2022 to date. Of these companies, 70% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77% and below the 10-year average of 73%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 1.9% above estimates, which is well below the 5-year average of 8.7% and well below the 10-year average of 6.5%. If 1.9% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the second-lowest surprise percentage reporting by the index in the past nine years. The lower earnings surprise percentage is due to a number of companies reporting actual earnings below estimates by unusually wide margins.” Report at...
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-november-4-2022
“For the moment, contrarian analysis suggests that a strong rally is likely in coming weeks.” - Mark Hulbert, Hulbert Ratings newsletter and MarketWatch contributor. Story at...
Here’s strong new evidence that a U.S. stock-market rally is coming soon (msn.com)
“While the Sell Side Indicator does not catch every rally or decline in the stock market, the indicator has historically had some predictive capability with respect to subsequent 12-month S&P 500 total returns.” The indicator isn’t flashing a ‘buy’ signal right now. But it hasn’t gotten this close since 2017...The bank noted that when the indicator was at current levels or lower, the subsequent 12-month returns for the S&P 500 were positive 94% of the time with the median 12-month return being 22%.” Story at...
Ignore the doom-n-gloom: BofA's reliable 'Sell-Side' contrarian indicator is very close to flashing a buy signal — here are 2 top stocks to consider when it does (msn.com)
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 3807.
-VIX dipped about 1% to 24.35. (I’d like to see VIX fall more sharply for more confirmation of the bullish case.).
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.216%.
-Drop from Top: 21.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 212-days.
The S&P 500 is 7.9% Below its 200-dMA & 0.9% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
So, it seems that Wall Street is lining up to embrace a rally, based on the above articles and others I have seen. I hope so. My initial bottom signal was on 27 September. We got a 90% up-volume day the day after and another 90% up-volume day 5-days later all confirming the bottom. What now looks like it may have been the final bottom occurred 2 weeks later on 12 October. The S&P 500 is more than 6% up since the low, but has been backing and filing along the way. There’s no guarantee that the final bottom is in, but we can hope. There is always the possibility that the index could retest the prior low or even dip somewhat below it. I’d be surprised if markets fall appreciably below the prior lows this year.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
