“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings
when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But
now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy
goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to
democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
RUSSIA OIL OUTPUT TO FALL BY 1.5 MILLION BpD (Oil
Price.com)
“Russia’s oil production could drop to as low as 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in December when the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil enters into force, Russian news agency TASS reported on Wednesday, citing analysts at the Energy Development Center. “We expect that production in December will fall by 1.5-1.7 mln barrels per day compared to the June-October average, or 14%,” according to a report from the Energy Development Center cited by TASS. The expected sharp drop in Russia’s oil production will lead to a spike in international oil prices, also considering that the OPEC+ group is reducing the target production as of November, the experts said.” Story at...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Output-Set-To-Fall-By-15-Million-Bpd-In-December.html
CPI LAST MONTH (BLS)
We’ll need to see improvement in tomorrow’s (Thursday’s)
data. Chart and data from...
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 2.1% to 3749.
-VIX went the wrong way and rose about 2% to 26.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.098%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 21.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 215-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.2% Below its 200-dMA & 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA. (It’s good to see the Index above its 50-day.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already
owned a small position in CVX.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Rally? What rally?
That’s an ugly chart, but I don’t think it has anything
to do with the election. Today’s market action was about the CPI report
tomorrow and the fact that the 3 previous days were up; markets were due for a
dip. Unfortunately, today’s move was more than a dip and we had some new
bearish signs creeping into the mix:
-Wednesday was a Distribution Day. That’s bearish, but it would take several more before I’d get concerned over that indicator.
-The Index broke down below its 50-dMA.
-Wednesday was a 90% down-volume day indicating 90% of the volume was on the sell side. That’s a bearish sign, but just one is not a cause for panic. “A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have any long-term trend implications, since they often occur at the end of short-term corrections. But, because they show that investors are in a mood to panic, even an isolated 90% Downside Day should be viewed as an important warning that more could follow.” – Lowry Research.
Not all signs were bearish. Today was a statistically
significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my
statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant,
down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.
Is the market telling us that most investors think the
CPI report tomorrow will be hotter than expected and bad for the markets? We’ll
find out at 8:30.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +8 to
+3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations slipped from +101 to +88. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
The trend in indicators is somewhat worrisome and I may
consider taking some profits to take some funds off the table if the trend
continues.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME is bearish; SENTIMENT & VIX are
neutral; PRICE is bullish.
Bottom line: I’m a still a Bull. I think the bottom was
3577 on 12 October, but there is always the possibility that the markets could
retest those lows again.
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested
in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75%
stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious
bear signs. It may be time to take profits...we’ll see.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
“Russia’s oil production could drop to as low as 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in December when the EU embargo on imports of Russian crude oil enters into force, Russian news agency TASS reported on Wednesday, citing analysts at the Energy Development Center. “We expect that production in December will fall by 1.5-1.7 mln barrels per day compared to the June-October average, or 14%,” according to a report from the Energy Development Center cited by TASS. The expected sharp drop in Russia’s oil production will lead to a spike in international oil prices, also considering that the OPEC+ group is reducing the target production as of November, the experts said.” Story at...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russias-Oil-Output-Set-To-Fall-By-15-Million-Bpd-In-December.html
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 2.1% to 3749.
-VIX went the wrong way and rose about 2% to 26.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.098%.
-Drop from Top: 21.8% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 215-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.2% Below its 200-dMA & 1.1% BELOW its 50-dMA. (It’s good to see the Index above its 50-day.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
XLI – Industrial ETF
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30
XLK – Technology ETF
Rally? What rally?
-Wednesday was a Distribution Day. That’s bearish, but it would take several more before I’d get concerned over that indicator.
-The Index broke down below its 50-dMA.
-Wednesday was a 90% down-volume day indicating 90% of the volume was on the sell side. That’s a bearish sign, but just one is not a cause for panic. “A single, isolated 90% Downside Day does not, by itself, have any long-term trend implications, since they often occur at the end of short-term corrections. But, because they show that investors are in a mood to panic, even an isolated 90% Downside Day should be viewed as an important warning that more could follow.” – Lowry Research.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
