Covid Lab Leak Lies ... Chicago PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Disney struggles as it continues to move away from family entertainment to tales of woke.” - Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-snow-woke-07-25-23?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Folks, this is a bull market. No sane person on earth can argue otherwise. Some may not like it. Some may poke holes in it, but bull it is.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.
 
“Demographics Say Bull Market Could Last Until 2035”. Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital. Video presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSHguukaDJQ
 
CHICAGO PMI (RTT News)
“Chicago-area business activity contracted at a slightly slower rate in the month of July, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Monday. MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer inched up to 42.8 in July from 41.5 in June, although a reading below 50 still indicates a contraction.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3380019/chicago-business-barometer-indicates-slightly-slower-contraction-in-july.aspx
 
YIELD INVERSION PUSHES OUT THE BEAR END MARKET (McClellan Financial Publications)
“A year ago, I noted that the inverted yield curve was saying that a bottom for stock prices could be expected in 2024.  But the important caveat to that expectation was that it depended upon the yield curve finishing its inversion then...We do not know yet when the most extreme point will be reached for the 10y-1y yield spread.  But if it was today, then that would mean a stock market bottom in roughly May 2025.  If the Fed keeps pushing up the short end of the maturity spectrum, as they did with the July 26, 2023 additional quarter point hike from the FOMC, then that postpones that bottom date for the stock market even further.” Commentary at... 
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/further_inversion_of_yield_curve_pushes_out_end_date_for_bear_market/
My cmt: Interesting thought...Tom McClellan thinks the bear market hasn’t bottomed yet. I don’t know about that. The S&P 500 is only 4.3% below its all-time high.  If the S&P 500 breaks that, and I think the market will, then the bear is officially over.
 
THE COVID LAB-LEAK DECEPTION (WSJ)
“Scientists who signed a paper claiming a natural origin turn out not to have believed it themselves... It was natural to doubt it was a coincidence that an outbreak caused by a SARS-like coronavirus from bats began in Wuhan, China, the only city where risky experiments were being done on diverse and novel SARS-like coronaviruses from bats... On March 17, 2020, the journal Nature Medicine published a paper by five scientists, “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2,” that dismissed “any type of laboratory based scenario” for the origin of the pandemic... But Slack messages and emails subpoenaed and released by the House Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic suggest that some of the authors didn’t believe their own conclusions. Before, during and even after the publication of their paper, they worried privately that Covid-19 was caused by a laboratory escape, perhaps even of a genetically engineered virus.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-lab-leak-deception-andersen-nih-research-paper-private-message-52fc0c16
My cmt: The story goes into the why. Why did these scientists come out with such a strong conclusion based on limited evidence?  It turns out that they were pressured into writing the paper by Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, Dr. Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, and Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Trust. These guys controlled research funding and were in a position to hurt the careers of the paper’s authors. I always considered right-wing criticism of Fauci to be over the top.  But Fauci’s organization was funding research at the Chinese lab in Wuhan, so he, and others, had a motive to deflect criticism that would come their way.  What is particularly galling, is Fauci’s frequent statements that he was just following the science. Now it appears that he rigged the science.
 
Time to concentrate on short-term trading...
DEVIL COMET HEADED STRAIGHT TOWARD EARTH
‘Devil Comet’ Heading Straight Toward Earth (msn.com)
My cmt: Of course, it’s Click bait. The comet’s closest pass to the earth will be 144 million miles away.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 4589.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.959%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 394-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 4.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
I’d look at Intel (INTC) since it is the leading momentum stock in the DOW 30 and leads the Dow stocks in showing good gains over the last 40-days. I’ll wait though, since a pullback of some kind is overdue.
 
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not long ago I was seeing some significant topping signs, even though it wasn’t clear that a top was occurring at the time.  Now, while the chart still looks over extended, indicators are not giving an overbought signal. Today, another Buy signal popped up.  The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is now bullish. That is based on the number of new-52-week lows which is now very low.
 
It still seems like the markets are overextended and due for a retreat of some kind. On the other hand, market internals still look pretty good so it is hard to get too worried.  But...
 
...just to be thoroughly schizophrenic, a bear sign popped up today. This indicator is based on the price-volume action in the S&P 500.  When the standard-deviation of daily moves falls to an extremely low level, it usually signals a top within the month.  The last time this indicator signaled a top was in November of 2021, about 3 weeks before the recent 25% correction that bottomed last October. I don’t expect that kind of carnage this time unless indicators get much more bearish than they are now. As we noted Friday, the weekly summary of indicators remained well to the Bull side, 6-bear and 17-bull, so a pullback of around 5% seems more likely than a return of the bear market.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from zero to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +7 to +6. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped to HOLD: PRICE is positive; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. There is a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 coming. I’ve been suggesting the pullback would begin soon. It’s hard to say.  There are only 3 Top Indicators now with bearish signals. The melt up may continue.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

PCE Prices ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
Monday will be another late post.  I have been busy recently.
 
PCE PRICES / PCE PRICES CORE (Yahoo Finance)
“The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric grew in June at its slowest annual rate since September 2021. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index grew 3.0% year over year in June, down from 3.8% the month prior... "Core" PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew 4.1%...We think the wage growth will slow further as economic growth slows, allowing the Fed to hold rates steady after this week's rate hike, but the risk is still tilted toward additional rate increases," Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote... Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-measure-shows-cooling-price-increases-in-june-160552467.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 1% to 4582.
-VIX fell about 7% to 13.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.994%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 393-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday: The weekly rundown of indicators moved a little more to the Bull Bear side (now 6-bear and 17-bull), but still strongly bullish. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
 
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 3 July.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) shows the Index outpacing Utilities.
 
NEUTRAL
-There was a Distribution Day 27 July, but one is not eough to send a signal
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands are elevated, but are neutral.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions – leaning bearish, but neutral.
-There have been 13 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI was overbought on 26 July but is now neutral.
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 3 May 2023. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 18 May. – Expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500, but improving sharply – call it neutral..
 
BEAR SIGNS
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500. The Index is too far ahead of Breadth as it has been for a month.
-27 July there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-The S&P 500 is 12.5% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 27 July.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
 
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20 December 2021), 9 days before the top of the 25% correction, there were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 6 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Last week, there were 4 bear-sign and 19 bull-signs.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -7 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +13 to +7. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. There is a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 coming. I’ve been suggesting the pullback would begin soon. It’s hard to say.  There are only 3 Top Indicators now with bearish signals. The melt up may continue.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Heat Waves are Normal ... Jobless Claims ... GDP ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.” - Thomas Sowell, , senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits slid last week to its lowest level in five months, further evidence that the U.S. labor market continues to defy the Federal Reserve’s attempts to cool it off. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ending July 22...” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-af1be1f6f26974ffc59fa44495158cc4
 
GDP – ADV (YahooFinance)
“The US economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the second quarter of 2023, adding to signs that the threat of a recession has faded in the immediate term. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of second quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.4% during the period...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-a-faster-pace-than-expected-in-q2-124533676.html
 
DURABLE ORDERS (Morningstar)
“Orders for longer-lasting goods jumped more than expected, increasing for the fourth straight month.
New orders for products meant to last at least three years, including appliances, computers, cars and other manufactured goods, increased 4.7% in June from a month earlier...” Story at... 
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/2023072710413/us-durable-goods-orders-jump-for-fourth-straight-month
 
HEAT WAVES ARE NORMAL (msn.com)
“Government researchers have been tracking heat waves for more than 100 years. According to data from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which is made available by the Environmental Protection Agency, the annual heat wave index for the contiguous 48 states was substantially higher in the 1930s than at any point in recent years. In some years in the 1930s, it was four times greater or even more... Although it’s true that some parts of the United States have seen the number of hotter-than-usual days increase over the past 70 years — including in California and the New York metropolitan area, both of which happen to be areas where a large number of media outlets are located — most weather stations have shown no meaningful changes or even declines... If the available data so clearly reveal that there is no heat-wave crisis, why are media outlets suggesting the opposite is true? The answer is sloppy, irresponsible media reporting, combined with cherry-picked data.” Story at...
It’s not climate change that’s causing heat waves this summer but no one wants to explain why (msn.com)
My cmt: The above article isn’t climate denial – the earth has warmed about 1 degree centigrade over the last 100-years due to human influences, primarily CO2 released into the atmosphere. Within that slow warming are higher magnitude heat waves. The highest recorded temperature in the US was just set in the last couple of years.  That record stood for about 100 years, going back to the 30’s. If the record temperature was due only to Global Warming, that record should have been broken years ago.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 4537.
-VIX jumped about 9% to 14.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.994%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 392-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT –SOLD.
 
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

That’s a Nasty looking chart and here was more bad news.
 
Today, Thursday, was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. “To constitute an Outside Reversal, the high of the current day must exceed the previous day's high, and the low of the current day must be lower than the previous day's low. This indicates a larger trading range and is a sign of increased volatility... For a bearish Outside Reversal, the opening price should be higher than the previous day's high... for a bullish Outside Reversal, the closing price should be higher than the previous day's high, suggesting that the buyers have gained the upper hand... These price fluctuations represent a struggle between buyers and sellers, and the eventual closing price indicates which group has gained control, signaling the future price direction.” From...
https://www.financestrategists.com/wealth-management/fundamental-vs-technical-analysis/outside-reversal/#what-is-an-outside-reversal
 
MACD of Price turned also bearish.  There were other bearish signs too, we may see them on tomorrow’s Friday summary of indicators.
 
On the bullish side, today, Thursday, was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. That may not hold Friday, though.  Thursday’s move was relatively small, less than 1%, so we may not see an up-day Friday.  Even if Friday is up, a return down is likely since I am suspicious that the trend has been broken and markets are heading down.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped from -5 to -7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +29 to +13. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped to HOLD: PRICE is positive; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

FED Rate Decision ... New Home Sales ... Crude oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Congress, if you will, please investigate the political witch hunts against me currently being brought by the corrupt DOJ and FBI, who are totally out of control...This continuing saga is retribution against me for winning and even more importantly to them, election interference regarding the 2024 presidential election. It will be their updated form of rigging our most important election. Look at the polls, they can’t beat me.”  - Donad Trump.
My cmt: What F’ng’ crap!
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNN)
“The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark lending rate by a quarter point Wednesday, lifting interest rates to their highest level in 22 years... Fed officials are estimating one more rate hike this year, according to their latest set of projections.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/economy/fed-july-interest-rate-decision-final/index.html
 
NEW HOME SALES (CNN)
“New home sales dropped in June from the month before, even as buyers continued to rely on new construction as an alternative to the historically low supply of existing homes for sale. Sales of newly constructed homes were down 2.5% in June from a revised surge of 6.6% in May, although they were up 23.8% from a year ago...”Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/26/homes/new-home-sales-fall-june/index.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 456.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 2% above the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
BYDEN DISCHARGES MORE STUDENT DEBT (YahooFinance)
“The Education Department and the Colorado attorney general on Tuesday announced $130 million in automatic debt discharge for 7,400 Colorado student loan borrowers who attended CollegeAmerica. Based on evidence gathered by the Colorado attorney general’s office, the Education Department found that CollegeAmerica’s parent company — the Center for Excellence in Higher Education (CEHE) — made misrepresentations about graduates’ salaries and employment rates, its programs, and the terms of private loans it offered borrowers.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-discharges-130m-in-student-debt-for-7400-collegeamerica-borrowers-175122931.html
My cmt: So, prosecute the criminals. Why are the taxpayers footing the bill? Ans. It’s all about transferring wealth and buying votes.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down slightly, but remained 4567.
-VIX slipped about 5% to 13.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.865%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 391-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.4 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 4.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft. It was down 3.8% today and is no longer the #1 momentum stock in the Dow.  It has under-performed other Dow stocks over the last 2 months. This is a trade for me so I plan to sell tomorrow.
 
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The chart shows the impact of the Fed today – extreme at the 2pm announcement, but overall, not much.  The broken record continues – I am still expecting to see a relatively small pullback start soon.

The following chart may be foreshadowing the expected decline. Recently, utilities are outperforming the S&P 500 - a bearish sign.
  
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped from -1 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +41 to +29. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

Consumer Confidence ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations... Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 4567.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 13.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.891%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 390-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.5 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There will be a pullback on the S&P 500 someday. When? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess. The S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trendline. We still have a few overbought indicators, but no smoking gun. I’m beginning to suspect that the S&P 500 will climb until it makes a new high.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped from +5 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +49 to +49. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 S&P GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US companies signalled a further rise in business activity during July, with the service sector continuing to drive growth. Nonetheless, the rate of expansion eased to the slowest for five months, as service providers registered a softer upturn in output and manufacturers reported broadly unchanged levels of production at the start of the third quarter... Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said...’business optimism about the year-ahead outlook has deteriorated sharply to the lowest seen so far News Release this year. The darkening picture adds downside risks to output growth in the coming months which, alongside the slowing in the pace of expansion in July, will keep alive fear that the US economy may yet succumb to another downturn before the year is out.’” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bbdd92c5f4a34bb5975b23263409ad3d
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 4555.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.88. (Options players may be concerned about overbought conditions, too.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.874%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 389-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.3 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Stocks continue to climb higher as the S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trend line. Indicators remain strongly to the bull side.  Today was the 8^th up-day in the last 10-days.  When the Index is higher 9 days out of 10, bulls must be concerned that the Index is overbought and a pullback of some kind is likely. I’ve been suggesting that outcome for a awhile. The Index needs to continue higher to give a strong overbought signal. So far overbought concerns have not played out. Will this rally make it to prior highs? The Index will get there in another 5%.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +45 to +49. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.