Trump Charges ... Phony Electors ... Housing Starts ... EIA Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Ultimately, if implemented, bans on conventionally powered vehicles will lead to draconian impediments to affordable and convenient driving and a massive misallocation of capital in the world’s $4 trillion automotive industry... Imagining a hypothetical all-EV world requires acknowledging the unavoidable fact of a rats’ nest of assumptions, guesses, and ambiguities regarding emissions.” – Mark Mills author of "Electric Vehicles for Everyone? The Impossible Dream" study, published this month by the Manhattan Institute. Story at...
Electric vehicle study disputes climate and cost benefits of nationwide transition (msn.com)
 
HOUSING STARTS (FOX Business)
“New U.S. home construction tumbled in June after rising the previous month, the latest sign that challenges within the housing market persist. Housing starts slid 8% last month... applications to build – which measures future construction – fell 3.7% over the course of the month... Compared with the same time last year, building permits are down about 15.3%.” Story at... 
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-slump-june-building-challenges-persist
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 457.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 1% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Also from EIA: “We forecast higher crude oil prices in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 in our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) because of moderate but persistent inventory drawdowns. Inventory drawdowns take place when demand for a commodity is greater than the supply of that commodity. We expect production cuts from OPEC members and forecast higher petroleum consumption...”
https://www.eia.gov/
 
MICHIGAN CHARGES FAKE ELECTORS (AP news)
“Michigan’s attorney general filed felony charges Tuesday against 16 Republicans who acted as fake electors [in the electoral college] for then-President Donald Trump in 2020, accusing them of submitting false certificates that confirmed they were legitimate electors despite Joe Biden’s victory in the state.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/fake-elector-michigan-republican-df7803fca3862be713d9d6d29fb77e81
 
TRUMP WILL GET INDICTED (msnbc.com)
“Donald Trump faces a possible second federal indictment after receiving a target letter from Special Counsel Jack Smith in connection with the Jan 6 probe. Former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York David Kelley tells MSNBC’s Ari Melber a target letter means ‘you’re going to get indicted.’” Story at...
https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/trump-is-done-will-get-indicted-trump-braces-for-coup-charges-188758085924
 
EIGHT FAKE ELECTORS IN GEORGIA RECEIVE IMMUNITY IN 2020 PHONY ELECTORS SCHEME (NBC News)
“At least eight of Georgia’s ‘fake electors’ have been granted immunity in the Fulton County district attorney's investigation into former President Donald Trump and his allies regarding alleged interference in the 2020 election, according to a new court filing. More than a dozen individuals signed a certificate falsely declaring that Trump had won Georgia in the 2020 election and declared themselves Georgia's “duly elected and qualified” electors. Georgia has 16 electors in the Electoral College.” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/least-8-georgias-fake-electors-received-immunity-deals-2020-election-p-rcna83161
My cmt: There are 7 states where the Trump team created alternative slates of electors: Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, New Mexico, Nevada, & Pennsylvania.
 
I’ve never understood why it has taken more than 2-1/2 years to bring these charges.  It is a felony to falsify a single vote in a Federal Election. The Trump team attempted to subvert the 2020 Presidential election by falsifying electoral college votes, essentially negating thousands of votes. Since the false electors certified in writing that they were the duly elected representatives of the states, it should have been a simple matter to bring charges. For me, this was the biggest surprise to come from the January 6 Congressional Committee hearings and there hasn’t been much reporting on this subject – that is about to change.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 4566.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.754%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 386-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I measure Sentiment as %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds over a 5-day period. Sentiment is now so overly bearish that the indicator is bullish, suggesting it’s time to buy. Given the number of top indicators and overbought indications, it seems odd. The only thing I can say here is that sometimes Guggenheim/Rydex investors are right. I’m tempted to say they are right now, but the markets have continued to grind higher, in spite of my “top” calls. So far, a bearish positioning has been a losing hand. That’s why I suggested about a month ago that short-term trading is a losing hand. The old saying is that the market can remain overbought longer than you can remain solvent.
 
I still don’t have the strong top-indicator I have been expecting, meaning that the Index may continue to crawl along its upper-trend line.
 
It’s beginning to look like this market wants to make new highs on the S&P 500. It is now only 4.8% below the all-time high made back in January 2022.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -3 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +27 to +29. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & SENTIMENT are positive; VIX & VOLUME are neutral. (This indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but there may be a better buying point ahead.)
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a decline of around 5-6% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record continues!)
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.