Empire State Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Since this is an era when many people are concerned
about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what
someone else has worked for?” - Thomas Sowell,
Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“When we invest in clean energy, and electric vehicles,
and reduce population, more of our children can breathe clean air and drink
clean water.” – Kamala Haris, Vice President of USA. (I think she meant
“polution”)
“Today, our society requires oil and gas … There is no
way to think that overnight we can just eliminate all that and rely only on 10%
of low-carbon energy. It will take decades to build a new system. If we don’t
invest enough [in fossil fuels], the
[oil] price will not be $75 per barrel, it will be $150 or $200 and all
consumers will be super unhappy and our life will be a nightmare.” - Patrick
Pouyanne, CEO TotalEnergies.
“I think the [climate] policies that the Biden
administration has put out are too much too fast. There’s an optimal pace for
decarbonization. If you do it too rapidly, you create a lot of disruption
because energy is very important and is central to society. If you do it too
slowly, you incur more risk from growing human influences. But what is being
proposed — zero emissions from electrical power by 2035, the effective
disappearance of all internal combustion engines being sold for vehicles — I
think most people would say that that’s much too fast and it’s not going to
happen anyway. So the politicians have just gotten out over their skis.
Somebody needs to sit down and formulate an integrated plan for decarbonization
that includes technology development, regulation, economics (people still need
to make money by providing energy), and consumer or public perception. Nobody
has done that yet. And I would think that that’s a necessary prerequisite if
we’re going to achieve any significant emissions reductions in the US.” –
Steven Koonin, PhD. Professor, New York University, Senior fellow at the American
Enterprise Institute.
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (actionforex.com)
“US Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed a decline in
the headline general business conditions index, falling from 6.6 to a modest
1.1 in July, slightly above expectation of 0.0. While 29% of respondents
reported improved conditions over the month, 27% reported a deterioration.”
Story at...
https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/510264-us-empire-state-manufacturing-fell-to-1-1-waning-optimism-and-moderating-price-increases/
PUT/CALL RATIO LOWEST SINCE 2021 (McClellan Financial
Publications)
“Persistently low readings lately for the CBOE Put/Call
Volume Ratio (for all products) have pulled down the 5-day moving average to
its lowest reading since the top of the last bull market in December
2021. Such readings are pretty reliably associated with meaningful tops
for stock prices.” Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4523.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.810%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.7%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 384-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.3%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
KRE has not breached its recent low around 36.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today, Monday, RSI was overbought. The S&P 500 was 0.1%
short of triggering a Bollinger Band overbought reading. That may be close
enough? We’ll see. If we see a big up-day tomorrow (say +1% on the Index) it
would be a clear Top Signal. The Index remains crawling along its upper trend
line – the upside from here isn’t too great, but we might still see a bigger
blow-off top. Even so, I don’t expect much of a down-turn.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
from +6 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +36 to +34.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral. (This
indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but there may be a
better buying point ahead.)
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, still expecting a
decline of around 4-5% on the S&P 500 to start soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals
remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
