CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations... Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 4567.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 13.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.891%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 390-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.5 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There will be a pullback on the S&P 500 someday. When? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess. The S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trendline. We still have a few overbought indicators, but no smoking gun. I’m beginning to suspect that the S&P 500 will climb until it makes a new high.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
from +5 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from +49
to +49. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral. (This
indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better
buying point ahead.)
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a
decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record
continues!)
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations... Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 4567.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 13.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.891%.
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 390-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.5 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
There will be a pullback on the S&P 500 someday. When? At this point, it’s anybody’s guess. The S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trendline. We still have a few overbought indicators, but no smoking gun. I’m beginning to suspect that the S&P 500 will climb until it makes a new high.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
...My current invested
position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
