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Thursday’s blog post is likely to be later in the  evening. It’s a busy day for me.
 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
"I think we are at a point in our country's history where people are dying for a generational shift...The party that figures that out has the upper hand next year." – Karl Rove, Former White House Chief of Staff
 
Hottest Day Ever (CNBC)
“Scientists warned Tuesday’s temperature record was likely to be the first of many over the coming months, citing the combination of the climate crisis and the El Niño phenomenon.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/climate-crisis-world-registers-hottest-day-since-records-began.html
El Nino doesn’t increase Global Warming – it merely transfers heat from the warm Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere. On balance, global temperature will not change due to El Nino. Once again, El Nino is a weather event, not climate, but don’t expect the press to report it properly, or the global alarmists to present it honestly. None of this changes that the earth is warming (1 degree C over the past 100 years) due to human influences.
 
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Almost all Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated further tightening is likely, if at a slower pace than the rapid-fire rate increases that had characterized monetary policy since early 2022, according to minutes released Wednesday.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/fed-minutes-july-2023-.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RTTnews)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by much less than expected in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The Commerce Department said factory orders rose by 0.3 percent in May...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3373958/u-s-factory-orders-rise-much-less-than-expected-in-may.aspx
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 4447.
-VIX rose about 5% to 14.18.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.938%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 376-days.
The S&P 500 is 11% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
I haven’t sold yet. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much change in my view – I’m expecting a small, normal retreat of 4-5%.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped from +4 to +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -24 to -20. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, still expecting a decline of around 4-5% on the S&P 500 to start soon.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.