S&P GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US companies signalled a further rise in business activity during July, with the service sector continuing to drive growth. Nonetheless, the rate of expansion eased to the slowest for five months, as service providers registered a softer upturn in output and manufacturers reported broadly unchanged levels of production at the start of the third quarter... Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said...’business optimism about the year-ahead outlook has deteriorated sharply to the lowest seen so far News Release this year. The darkening picture adds downside risks to output growth in the coming months which, alongside the slowing in the pace of expansion in July, will keep alive fear that the US economy may yet succumb to another downturn before the year is out.’” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bbdd92c5f4a34bb5975b23263409ad3d
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 4555.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.88. (Options players may be concerned about overbought conditions, too.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.874%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 389-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.3 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Stocks continue to climb higher as the S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trend line. Indicators remain strongly to the bull side. Today was the 8th up-day in the last 10-days. When the Index is higher 9 days out of 10, bulls must be concerned that the Index is overbought and a pullback of some kind is likely. I’ve been suggesting that outcome for a awhile. The Index needs to continue higher to give a strong overbought signal. So far overbought concerns have not played out. Will this rally make it to prior highs? The Index will get there in another 5%.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +45 to +49. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral. (This
indicator ensemble is showing positive market conditions, but I expect a better
buying point ahead.)
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a
decline of around 5% on the S&P 500 to start soon. (The Broken Record
continues!)
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“US companies signalled a further rise in business activity during July, with the service sector continuing to drive growth. Nonetheless, the rate of expansion eased to the slowest for five months, as service providers registered a softer upturn in output and manufacturers reported broadly unchanged levels of production at the start of the third quarter... Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said...’business optimism about the year-ahead outlook has deteriorated sharply to the lowest seen so far News Release this year. The darkening picture adds downside risks to output growth in the coming months which, alongside the slowing in the pace of expansion in July, will keep alive fear that the US economy may yet succumb to another downturn before the year is out.’” Press release at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bbdd92c5f4a34bb5975b23263409ad3d
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 4555.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.88. (Options players may be concerned about overbought conditions, too.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.874%.
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 389-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.3 % ABOVE its 200-dMA (overbought) and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA (overbought).
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
Stocks continue to climb higher as the S&P 500 continues to creep along its upper trend line. Indicators remain strongly to the bull side. Today was the 8th up-day in the last 10-days. When the Index is higher 9 days out of 10, bulls must be concerned that the Index is overbought and a pullback of some kind is likely. I’ve been suggesting that outcome for a awhile. The Index needs to continue higher to give a strong overbought signal. So far overbought concerns have not played out. Will this rally make it to prior highs? The Index will get there in another 5%.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
