Jobless Claims ... Philadelphia Fed Index ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Normally, when an ethnic minority group is subjected to intimidation and abuse, progressives are the first to call out racism. So why not now? The reason, I suspect, is simple. Many of the people on these marches are non-white. And a lot of progressives are incapable of processing the idea that non-white people can be racist. They just can’t compute it. They see racism as unique to white people.”  - Michael Deacon in the Telegraph, a British newspaper. From...
The Left are blind to anti-Jewish racism for one simple reason (msn.com)
 
“These buses are nefarious in nature and were filled with FBI informants dressed as Trump supporters deployed unto our Capitol on Jan. 6. Your day is coming, Mr. Wray.” - Representative Clay Higgins (R-La.) during Congressional questioning of Christopher Wray, Director of the FBI. Supposedly, FBI informants led the January 6 riot to get Trump. What a F’ing nut case. Wray was a Trump appointee! Geez...you can’t make this stuff up.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a three-month high last week, suggesting that the labor market was gradually cooling in another boost to the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation... Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Nov. 11...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-2023-11-16/
 
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (Philadelphia Fed)
“Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a decline in overall regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity rose but remained negative, while the shipments index turned negative, and the new orders index remained positive but low. On balance, the firms indicated mostly steady employment, and the current price indexes continue to suggest increases in prices. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest respondents’ expectations for growth over the next six months were subdued.” Report at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2023-11
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Industry Week)
“U.S. industrial production declined more than expected in October, with the auto workers strike exerting downward pressure on a range of market groups, the Federal Reserve said Thursday... U.S. industrial production fell 0.6% in October from a revised 0.1% rise in September...” Story at...
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/21277510/us-industrial-production-falls-in-october-due-to-strikes
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4508.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 14.32.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.441%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 471-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 5.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
 
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
 
CSCO – added 9/5. SOLD 11/16/2023. I took a bath on that one.  (This was a Ken Seymore pick on Fast Money. I should have followed my momentum rules and sold weeks ago. Normally, I would only hold a stock in the top 3 of momentum.)
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
On the NYSE, declining-issues outpaced by advancing-issues by nearly 2 to 1. Declining-volume was closer to 3 times advancing-volume. Surprisingly, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain at the close.
 
RSI is overbought, but Bollinger Bands are not - I use these indicators together and they both need to agree before we can suspect a short-term move.
 
8 days out of the last 10 have been up-days and 13 out of 20-days have been up-days.  These are nearly overbought levels, but not quite, so markets can continue to go up. FOMO reigns.

We'll get a better view of markets when I do the Friday Summary of Indicators tomorrow.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +9 to +8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +84 to +83. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.