Fed Minutes ... Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Will Rob Manfred apologize to the state of
Georgia and its citizens? The commissioner of Major League Baseball announced
Thursday that the annual All-Star Game will be held in Atlanta in 2025, two
years after he moved the game from the city because of a controversial election
law. What’s changed? Not the bulk of the law, the Election Integrity Act of
2021, which tightened up vote-by-mail and voter ID rules. Mr. Manfred at the
time bowed to Democratic Party and media distortions about the law, which
President Biden infamously called “Jim Crow 2.0.” ...Georgia set turnout
records for a midterm election in 2022 and led Southeast states in overall
voter turnout... The league’s flip-flop shows how easily big American
businesses can be swayed to bend to progressive political panics, no matter the
facts.” – WSJ Editorial Staff. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-mea-culpa-from-mlb-rob-manfred-baseball-all-star-game-3ec40287
“Republicans Are Far Too Racist to Vote for a Minority
for President” – Gabriel Roman, Princess Free Zone.
My cmt: Virginia was the Capital of the Confederacy during
the Civil War, a classic member of “The Old South” and Republican for many
years. Except for 1964. Virginia voted for the Republican Presidential
candidate every year from 1952 until 2004. Virginia elected Douglas Wilder as
its Governor in 1990. Given that Wilder was the first black Governor in the
country, I would argue that Tim Scott’s problem with name recognition had
nothing to do with his race. I have little respect for people, like Mr. Roman,
who engage in race baiting.
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting
expressed little appetite for cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly
as inflation remains well above their goal, according to minutes released
Tuesday... Traders in the fed funds futures market are indicating virtually no
probability that policymakers will increase rates again this cycle, and in fact
are pricing in cuts starting in May.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/fed-minutes-november-2023.html
EXISTING HOME SALES
(Yahoo Finance)
“Sales of previously owned homes dropped 4.1% in October
from the month before to an annualized rate of 3.79 million, the National
Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Tuesday. That was 14.6% lower than a year ago...”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-kept-climbing-even-as-existing-home-sales-tanked-last-month-150116659.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 4538.
-VIX dipped about 0.5% to 13.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.394%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 474-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.5%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25%
decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
After 5 days up, the S&P 500 was due for a down day. Not
much more to say.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +2 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +59 to +57.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
