“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“In their appeal against the Colorado lawsuit [to remove
Trump from the ballot for insurrection] Trump's lawyers [stated] that Trump
technically did not swear an oath to "support" the Constitution.
Instead, during his January 2017 inauguration, Trump swore to "preserve,
protect and defend" the Constitution during his role as president.”
My cmt: No wait, I didn’t say this...
"Wow in a legal proceeding Trump is now arguing he didn't violate the 14th Amendment by inciting the Jan 6 insurrection because he 'never took an oath to support the Constitution of the United States.' This treacherous criminal is head of the Republican Party." - Democratic New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell
From...
Donald Trump Says He Never Swore Oath 'to Support the Constitution' (msn.com)
If you are a Democrat and your state allows you to vote in the Republican primary (as does Virginia), please crossover and vote for Nikki Haley in the primary. We need to keep this nut case (Trump) off the Presidential Ballot. Since Trump would then run as an independent, a Democratic candidate would then be a shoe-in. Trump would split the Republican vote, thus getting his revenge on the Rino Republicans (as he calls anyone who doesn’t support him). I support any move that will get rid of Trump.
FYI: As a Civil Servant working for the Department of
Defense my oath was (in part) ...
“I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the ...”
Thus, from my perspective, Trump is a domestic enemy of the Constitution for attempting to overturn an election that he clearly lost - I can never support him.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
"’Consumer confidence increased in November, following three consecutive months of decline,’ said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. ‘This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged. November's increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-increased-in-november-301999321.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4555.
-VIX was unchanged at 12.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.323%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 478-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.7% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much different today: The Smart Money overbought indicator, RSI, and the # up-days over the last month all remain overbought. (As of today, the Overbought/Oversold index is not overbought.) These are still suggesting weakness could last a bit longer. There are still plenty of bullish indicators, so I am not concerned. It looks like a normal pause or a flattening of the uptrend.
Today, (Tuesday) unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve
often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at
market turning points. It is suggesting some downside ahead, but the signal is
often wrong. It’s not in my system as an indicator, so for now, I’ll pay
attention, but not worry. As noted above, there are still reliable bull signs
in the indicators.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +58 to +57. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: VOLUME & VIX are bullish; PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
My cmt: No wait, I didn’t say this...
"Wow in a legal proceeding Trump is now arguing he didn't violate the 14th Amendment by inciting the Jan 6 insurrection because he 'never took an oath to support the Constitution of the United States.' This treacherous criminal is head of the Republican Party." - Democratic New Jersey Congressman Bill Pascrell
From...
Donald Trump Says He Never Swore Oath 'to Support the Constitution' (msn.com)
If you are a Democrat and your state allows you to vote in the Republican primary (as does Virginia), please crossover and vote for Nikki Haley in the primary. We need to keep this nut case (Trump) off the Presidential Ballot. Since Trump would then run as an independent, a Democratic candidate would then be a shoe-in. Trump would split the Republican vote, thus getting his revenge on the Rino Republicans (as he calls anyone who doesn’t support him). I support any move that will get rid of Trump.
“I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the ...”
Thus, from my perspective, Trump is a domestic enemy of the Constitution for attempting to overturn an election that he clearly lost - I can never support him.
"’Consumer confidence increased in November, following three consecutive months of decline,’ said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. ‘This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged. November's increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-increased-in-november-301999321.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4555.
-VIX was unchanged at 12.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.323%.
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 478-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.7% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
Not much different today: The Smart Money overbought indicator, RSI, and the # up-days over the last month all remain overbought. (As of today, the Overbought/Oversold index is not overbought.) These are still suggesting weakness could last a bit longer. There are still plenty of bullish indicators, so I am not concerned. It looks like a normal pause or a flattening of the uptrend.
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
