New Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 

 
MORE FAKE ELECTOR CHARGES FOR TRUMP? (The Independent)
“Four swing-states are reportedly still investigating the slates of so-called ‘fake electors’ which Donald Trump allegedly hoped to use to falsely certify that he had won the 2020 election... It hinged on then-Vice President Mike Pence choosing to certify the slates of Trump-loyalist ‘fake’ electors in swing-states... On the day of the certification, 6 January 2021, Mr. Pence penned a letter refusing to go along with the plot, saying his ‘oath to support and defend the Constitution constrains me from claiming unilateral authority to determine which electoral votes should be counted and which should not.’” Story at...
Trump could face more criminal charges over ‘fake electors’ scam, report says (msn.com)
My cmt: This was the real insurrection - a seditious conspiracy to steal the election. Can you imagine if the Democrats had tried a scheme like this? Hannity, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton and the rest of the right-wing, media wackos would be apoplectic. I find this all depressing since I lean to the right and voted for Trump in 2020 – never again! Trump is a criminal. Given that some of Trump’s co-conspirators have already pled guilty in Georgia, Trump may be inaugurated in jail.
 
"You lost. You're guilty. Welcome to Columbia, Donald. - Sponsored by the league of radical leftist vermin - Jay Bender Instigator.” Billboards in Columbia, SC greeting “The Donald” on his visit.
 
NEW HOME SALES (CNN)
“New home sales in the United States fell in October as typical mortgage rates reached their highest levels this year. Sales of newly constructed homes fell 5.6% in October... Sales were up 17.7% from a year ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/27/business/new-home-sales-drop-in-october-amid-higher-mortgage-rates/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 4550.
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.398%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 477-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.7% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
 
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Breadth continues to slowly improve.  The 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE popped above zero today, canceling another one of our bear indicators.
 
Today, there was a Bearish Outside Reversal signal on the S&P 500. Today’s high and low both exceeded Friday’s high and low. This can sometime signal a reversal down since today’s close was lower.  Friday was a very low-volume, trading-day without much range. I think this signal is skewed by the low range on Friday and is probably not signaling a significant trend change now; I’ll ignore it.
 
The Smart Money overbought indicator, RSI, and the # up-days over the last month all remain overbought.  (As of today, the Overbought/Oversold index is not overbought.) These are still suggesting weakness could last a bit longer. There are still plenty of bullish indicators, so I am not concerned about a normal flattening of the uptrend.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +8 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +59 to +58. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator slipped to HOLD: VOLUME & VIX are bullish; PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.