Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“The Biden administration releases $10 billion to Iran
while talks to release 50 of the 240 hostages that Hamas is holding continue.”
Michael Ramirez. Commenary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY!
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, but that likely does
not change the view that the labor market is gradually slowing as higher
interest rates cool demand in the economy... Initial claims for state
unemployment benefits dropped 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the
week ended Nov. 18.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-labor-market-still-slowing-2023-11-22/
DURABLE ORDERS (RTT News)
“After reporting a spike in new orders for U.S.
manufactured durable goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department
released a report on Wednesday showing durable goods orders pulled back by much
more than expected in the month of October. The Commerce Department said
durable goods orders plunged by 5.4 percent in October...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3407142/u-s-durable-goods-orders-tumble-amid-sharp-pullback-in-aircraft-demand.aspx
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.7 million barrels from the
previous week. At 448.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4557.
-VIX dipped about 4% to 12.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.408%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 475-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.9%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25%
decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Pundits keep cautioning about the narrow advance in the
stock markets and that the markets are being carried by the magnificent seven.
I suspect those investors are looking at the number of issues making new-highs.
Over the last 10 trading sessions, on average, only 2.4% of issues on the NYSE
are making new all-time, 52-week highs.
That’s a low number and it certainly would be concerning if the S&P 500 was
also making a new-all-time high. Since the S&P 500 isn’t, and we know there
has been significant weakness not too long ago, I prefer to look at other
measures of breadth.
The 150-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE has been
headed higher and is now 50%, meaning that half of the issues on the NYSE have
been going up over the last 7-1/2 months.
That tends to approximate the advance-decline line and it is suggesting
that conditions aren’t as bad as the new-high numbers would have us believe.
Other shorter-term measures (50-dMA and the 100-dMA) are improving. If that
continues, markets will make new, all-time highs. A Santa Clause rally, starting
now, should get us there. The S&P 500 is only 5% below its all-time high.
If new-52-week high numbers remain low while markets are
making new, all-time-highs, then we have an issue to worry about.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +57 to +55. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
