“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“US Snow Cover Highest in Decades with Winter Still 7
Weeks Away. Snow was on the ground in 18% of the continental US on Wednesday
morning... It was the most extensive early November snowfall in at least two
decades, the report said.” Story at...
US Snow Cover Highest in Decades with Winter Still 7 Weeks Away (msn.com)
From...
https://jensorensen.com/2014/01/06/cartoon-scientists-global-warming-snowstorm/
BIDEN’S DELAWARE
BEACHES STAND AS A REBUKE TO HIS CLIMATE ALARMISM (Washington Examiner)
“...a 1995 New York Times report headlined “Scientist Say Earth’s Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions...at the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years.” Really. Well, here it is more than 25 years later, and most of the East Coast beaches are decidedly intact, thank you very much. Heller has posted a plethora of information about why and how the alarmists have been wrong about the projected rise of sea levels and why much (although, of course, not all) of the conventional wisdom about climate change is actually junk science.” Story at...
Biden’s Delaware beaches stand as rebuke to his climate alarmism (msn.com)
Climate alarmism is pervasive. While the experts say that individual storm events cannot be blamed on climate change, the Weather Channel continues to blame climate change for every extreme event.
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE / AVG HOURLY EARNINGS (CNBC)
“Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a rise of 170,000... The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022... Average hourly earnings, a key measure for inflation, increased ... the 4.1% year-over-year gain was 0.1 percentage point above expectations. ” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html
My cmt: The report suggests the FED won’t raise rates again. The UAW strike was responsible for lowered job creation so its questionable if the report is as bullish as the market seems to think. But why complain? Mr. Market is always right.
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via prnewswire)
"In October, the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than September reading of 53.6 percent. The composite index indicated growth in October for the 10th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent).” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-51-8-october-2023-services-ism-report-on-business-301976221.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4358.
-VIX fell about 5% to 14.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.577%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 9.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 462-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We got a Goldilocks Jobs Report Friday and the ISM non-Manufacturing showed a small slow-down in the expansion. Markets liked the news - “Looking good Billy Ray! Feeling good Lewis!”
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These
indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than
the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators made a sharp u-turn
to the Bull side this week, now 4-bear and 18-bull.
BULL SIGNS
-There was a Follow-thru Day 2 November. This cancels all Distribution Days/
-There have been 6 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days. Coming off the bottom, this reinforces bullishness.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 October.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 2 Nov.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA, so short-term momentum is bullish.
-There were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 2 & 3 Nov.
-65% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
-Sentiment is overly bearish (a bullish sign) on preliminary numbers. Final numbers are in tonight and this one could change back to neutral.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) turned sharply and has been headed in a bullish direction for the last 3 days.
NEUTRAL
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-12 October there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. I’ll keep this in effect for 5 days and until the McClellan Oscillator turns bullish. - Expired
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). The spread doesn’t have to turn positive for this indicator to be bullish, it just has to improve a lot. - Expired
-The S&P 500 is 2.6% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-RSI.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-VIX indicator.
-There was a 90% down-volume day 21 Sept.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is HOLD.
BEAR SIGNS
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20
December 2021), 9 days before the top of the current 25% correction, there were
21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 4 bear-signs and 18-Bull.
Last week, there were 19 bear-sign and 3 bull-signs.
Indicators are confirming what we have suspected all week
– correction over! The bottom WAS last Friday.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +9 to +10 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -66
to -45. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are bullish; VIX is neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
Correction over – I’m bullish. The markets are going higher.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
US Snow Cover Highest in Decades with Winter Still 7 Weeks Away (msn.com)
From...
https://jensorensen.com/2014/01/06/cartoon-scientists-global-warming-snowstorm/
“...a 1995 New York Times report headlined “Scientist Say Earth’s Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions...at the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years.” Really. Well, here it is more than 25 years later, and most of the East Coast beaches are decidedly intact, thank you very much. Heller has posted a plethora of information about why and how the alarmists have been wrong about the projected rise of sea levels and why much (although, of course, not all) of the conventional wisdom about climate change is actually junk science.” Story at...
Biden’s Delaware beaches stand as rebuke to his climate alarmism (msn.com)
Climate alarmism is pervasive. While the experts say that individual storm events cannot be blamed on climate change, the Weather Channel continues to blame climate change for every extreme event.
“Nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday, against the Dow Jones consensus forecast for a rise of 170,000... The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the highest level since January 2022... Average hourly earnings, a key measure for inflation, increased ... the 4.1% year-over-year gain was 0.1 percentage point above expectations. ” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/jobs-report-october-2023-us-payrolls-increased-by-150000-in-october-less-than-expected.html
My cmt: The report suggests the FED won’t raise rates again. The UAW strike was responsible for lowered job creation so its questionable if the report is as bullish as the market seems to think. But why complain? Mr. Market is always right.
"In October, the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than September reading of 53.6 percent. The composite index indicated growth in October for the 10th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent).” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-51-8-october-2023-services-ism-report-on-business-301976221.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4358.
-VIX fell about 5% to 14.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.577%.
-Drop from Top: 9.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 462-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
We got a Goldilocks Jobs Report Friday and the ISM non-Manufacturing showed a small slow-down in the expansion. Markets liked the news - “Looking good Billy Ray! Feeling good Lewis!”
-There was a Follow-thru Day 2 November. This cancels all Distribution Days/
-There have been 6 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days. Coming off the bottom, this reinforces bullishness.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 12 October.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 2 Nov.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA, so short-term momentum is bullish.
-There were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 2 & 3 Nov.
-65% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
-Sentiment is overly bearish (a bullish sign) on preliminary numbers. Final numbers are in tonight and this one could change back to neutral.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) turned sharply and has been headed in a bullish direction for the last 3 days.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-12 October there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. I’ll keep this in effect for 5 days and until the McClellan Oscillator turns bullish. - Expired
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). The spread doesn’t have to turn positive for this indicator to be bullish, it just has to improve a lot. - Expired
-The S&P 500 is 2.6% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-RSI.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-VIX indicator.
-There was a 90% down-volume day 21 Sept.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is HOLD.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
Correction over – I’m bullish. The markets are going higher.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
