PCE Prices ... Chicago PMI ... Personal Spending and Income ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
From Matt Davies Twitter (X) Post
Biden’s mental capacity seems severely compromised. His
age is showing and it scares me. Trump
could get elected. The way to put an end to Trump is for Democrats to cross
party lines and vote in the Republican Primaries. It is allowed in 16 states
with no restrictions including here in Virginia. It is also allowed in a number of other
states, but the rules vary so check your locality.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
PCE PRICES / PERSONAL INCOME & SPENDING (CNBC)
“Inflation as measured by personal spending increased in
line with expectations... The personal consumption expenditures price index,
excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a
year-over-year basis... Personal income and spending both rose 0.2% on the
month, also meeting estimates and indicating that consumers are keeping pace
with inflation.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Slightly more Americans filed for jobless claims last
week, but the overall number of people in the U.S. collecting unemployment
benefits rose to its highest level in two years. Applications for unemployment
benefits rose by 7,000 to 218,000 for the week ending Nov. 25...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/applications-us-jobless-benefits-rise-modestly-continuing-claims-105270445
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business
Barometer) jumped to 55.8 in November from 44.0 in October, marking the highest
level in the past 17 months. The latest reading is better than the 45.4
forecast and pushes the index into expansion territory for the first time in 15
months.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/30/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-17-month-high-in-november?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4568.
-VIX dipped about 0.5% to 12.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.340%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 480-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.6% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.9% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25%
decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Rally had been stalled around the 4550 level on the
S&P 500 and has been nerly flat for the last 7 days. Perhaps it broke out
today? Maybe. Maybe not.
The overbought signal from the Overbought/Oversold Index
(Advance/decline Ratio) has been cleared, but other oversold signals remain: RSI
remains overbought - it has been overbought for 10 out of the last 11 trading
sessions; and Last hour action is overbought.
On the bullish side, Breadth is improving and 50-dMA of
issues advancing on the NYSE is now above 50%. That clears 2 bear signals.
Higher prices ahead? I think so. As I’ve suggested previously, I think the
S&P 500 can go up another 5% or so in December and that would push the
Index to new All-Time-Highs and end the Bear Market that has lasted 480 trading-sessions
and counting. At that point, the question will be, “What’s next?” We’ll just
have to check the indicators when the markets get there, if they get there.
A check of the Preliminary Friday Indicator Summary numbers
show that there are now (about) 18 Bull and 6 Bear signals. That’s a good
bullish sign.
Volume was high today, about 10% above this month’s
average. It’s most likely due to money-managers making month-end moves. Unchanged
volume was high, too. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. Since the signal is often wrong, it’s not in my system as an
indicator, so for now, I’ll pay attention, but not worry. As noted above, there
are plenty of reliable bull signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from zero to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +47
to +37. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VIX are bullish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
