Political commentary by Michael Ramirez from...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
CHRISTMAS QUIZ: Who sang the original and [arguably] most
famous version of the “Little Drummer Boy?” Answer at end of blog.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“My 2024 prediction: Trump will be a massive complaining,
belly-aching, whining, weak, soft, annoying, incredibly sheepish, victim this
entire coming year. And his sheep will desperately look at him with googly eyes
for inspiration as they mimic his victimness." – Adam Kinziger, Former
Republican Representative.
“I’ve never seen this much anger at the two major parties
and this high a disappointment about the fact that we may be left with a choice
of Presidents Trump and Biden, once again.” - Joe Lieberman, former Senator and
founder of No Labels.
Slide from Chris Ciovacco’s presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekwoBMmj9Ik
My cmt: To be clear, Chris Ciovacco is suggesting that the current Secular Bull Trend could last until 2035.
“Earlier this month, Barron’s highlighted the 2024
S&P 500 targets for six investment strategists including yours truly. Our
target is the highest at 5,400, based on projected S&P 500 earnings per
share of $250 next year... Last week, we raised our 2025 target for the S&P
500 price index to 6,000, as our “Roaring 2020s” scenario is looking not only
possible, but also probable.” – Ed Yardini, Yardini Research. From...
Ed Yardeni: 12 reasons why you’ll see the S&P 500 at 5,400 in 2024 (msn.com)
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
“US construction spending rose less than expected in November amid a decline in outlays on public projects, but data for the prior month was revised sharply higher suggesting underlying strength in the sector. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending increased 0.4%.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-rises-less-153328561.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.6% to 4743.
-VIX rose about 6% to 13.2.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.941%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 1.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 500-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
“As a reminder, at this time in 2022, predictions of recession were the norm—and on some measures stronger than they had ever been outside an actual recession.” – James Mackintosh, WSJ Op-Ed.
We were bullish almost the entire year and over-invested for all of it. We listened to the stock markets and they were telling us no recession. “This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business. Move along.”
I am bullish for this year, too, but the markets are
starting the year with some profit taking for those who wanted to delay tax gains
until 2024. The 2023 winners were losers for day one of trading including
Boeing and Intel, two that I own. Let’s hope their declines are short-term.
My “Friday” Summary of Indicators dropped to 11-Bear and
15-Bull indicators from 6-Bear and 18-Bull Friday.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +2 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +81 to +67.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral. (One
warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY
at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but markets appear weak (based on falling indicators) and a decline of 3-5% would be perfectly normal.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.) THIS INDICATOR
GET’S CONFUSED WHEN VOLUMES ARE CONSISTENTLY LOW, LIKE DURING THE HOLIDAYS.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekwoBMmj9Ik
My cmt: To be clear, Chris Ciovacco is suggesting that the current Secular Bull Trend could last until 2035.
Ed Yardeni: 12 reasons why you’ll see the S&P 500 at 5,400 in 2024 (msn.com)
“US construction spending rose less than expected in November amid a decline in outlays on public projects, but data for the prior month was revised sharply higher suggesting underlying strength in the sector. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending increased 0.4%.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-rises-less-153328561.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.6% to 4743.
-VIX rose about 6% to 13.2.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.941%.
-Drop from Top: 1.1%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 500-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 8.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
“As a reminder, at this time in 2022, predictions of recession were the norm—and on some measures stronger than they had ever been outside an actual recession.” – James Mackintosh, WSJ Op-Ed.
We were bullish almost the entire year and over-invested for all of it. We listened to the stock markets and they were telling us no recession. “This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business. Move along.”
I remain bullish, but markets appear weak (based on falling indicators) and a decline of 3-5% would be perfectly normal.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
