“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in December compared with November ...Sales were 6.2% lower than in December 2022, marking the lowest level since August 2010.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/december-home-sales-slump-to-close-out-worst-year-since-1995.html
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Yahoo Finance)
“The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday revealed a 13% jump in overall sentiment during the month of January. The index reading for the month came in at 78.8, its highest mark since July 2021...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumers-havent-felt-this-good-about-the-economy-since-2021-december-was-no-fluke-153749011.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4840.
-VIX slipped about 6% to 13.3.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.13
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY – SOLD 1/17/2023. I’ll probably replace it with IBB (Biotech ETF) when it looks like this pullback is over.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being. Could it get any worse for them?
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Finally...the correction that started over 2 years ago is officially over. The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today. The top was 3 January 2022. The bottom was 12 October 2022. The maximum decline was 25%. We were able to call the top and bottom within a week at each end. 4% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That’s an OK number at a new S&P 500 high, but it would be nice to see a little more participation, i.e., I'd like to see more issues making new-highs. I’ll watch this stat as we make new highs.
Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about
60% of the time. I noted yesterday that pullbacks end on down days and usually
big down-days at that. The market participants seem to think the low Wednesday
was the bottom. They could be right, but I still don’t have too much evidence
to agree or disagree. The Friday summary
of indicators is close to neutral.
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These
indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than
the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators turned a
little more Bearish this week, but remains essentially neutral: now 11-bear and 10-bull.
BULL SIGNS
-There have been 2 Follow-thru Days recently: Thursday and Friday.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
NEUTRAL
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
- The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is 9.9% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-RSI.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative.
-47% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
BEAR SIGNS
-Bollinger Bands.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 29 Dec.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20
December 2021), 9 days before the top of the current 25% correction, there were
21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 11 bear-signs and 10-Bull.
Last week, there were 7 bear-sign and 13 bull-signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -10 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations remained -59.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
Pullback over? It could be. I remain bullish. I’ll wait to see more bull signs before I decide to add to stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs sooner rather than later.
I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Sales of previously owned homes fell 1% in December compared with November ...Sales were 6.2% lower than in December 2022, marking the lowest level since August 2010.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/december-home-sales-slump-to-close-out-worst-year-since-1995.html
“The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday revealed a 13% jump in overall sentiment during the month of January. The index reading for the month came in at 78.8, its highest mark since July 2021...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumers-havent-felt-this-good-about-the-economy-since-2021-december-was-no-fluke-153749011.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4840.
-VIX slipped about 6% to 13.3.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.13
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY – SOLD 1/17/2023. I’ll probably replace it with IBB (Biotech ETF) when it looks like this pullback is over.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
Finally...the correction that started over 2 years ago is officially over. The S&P 500 made a new, all-time high today. The top was 3 January 2022. The bottom was 12 October 2022. The maximum decline was 25%. We were able to call the top and bottom within a week at each end. 4% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That’s an OK number at a new S&P 500 high, but it would be nice to see a little more participation, i.e., I'd like to see more issues making new-highs. I’ll watch this stat as we make new highs.
-There have been 2 Follow-thru Days recently: Thursday and Friday.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
- The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is 9.9% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-RSI.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative.
-47% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
-Bollinger Bands.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 29 Dec.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
Pullback over? It could be. I remain bullish. I’ll wait to see more bull signs before I decide to add to stock holdings.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
