CHRISTMAS QUIZ: “When do the 12-days of Christmas begin?” Answer at end of Blog.
“Shenna Bellows, Maine’s secretary of state, has ordered Donald Trump’s name removed from the Republican primary ballot. Invoking Section 3 of the post-Civil War 14th Amendment, Ms. Bellows claims Mr. Trump engaged in insurrection against the U.S. when he did whatever he did, or didn’t do, on Jan. 6, three years ago this week. Recently, Colorado’s Supreme Court ordered Mr. Trump’s name deleted from that state’s Republican primary ballot for the same reason... In such a dispute, a democracy must revert to its essential idea: the sovereignty of the people. It isn’t for unelected judges, or provincial officials, to make such a decision. The people themselves, in their millions, must render their verdict in the voting booth.” – Lance Morrow, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Opinion from the WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-vs-the-woke-let-the-people-decide-if-he-is-on-the-ballot-maine-colorado-dcaf41ce
My cmt: Mr. Morrow’s opinion (“Trump vs. the Woke: Let the People Decide”) misses a crucial point. The insurrection wasn’t the riot on 6 January; Trump’s insurrection occurred when he put forth a phony slate of electoral college voters in multiple swing states in an attempt to “win” an election he clearly lost. He led an insurrection; he is not qualified to be President of the United States. Further, why should we trust voters? Right-wing-broadcasters bolstered Trump’s lies that gave him voter support he didn’t earn. If it weren’t for Fox Broadcasting, Trump probably would have been disqualified from running when he was impeached.
“In November 2020, former President Donald Trump asserted that voter fraud had altered the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. The day after the election, his campaign hired an expert in voter data to attempt to prove Trump’s allegations and put him back in the White House. I am the expert... The findings of my company’s in-depth analysis...found no evidence of voter fraud sufficient to change the outcome of any election. That message was communicated directly to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows... More important, claims of voter fraud made by others were verified as false, including proof of why those claims were disproven.” Story at...
Trump paid me to find voter fraud. Then he lied after I found 2020 election wasn't stolen. (msn.com)
"Federal Reserve officials in December concluded that interest rate cuts are likely in 2024, though they appeared to provide little in the way of when that might occur, according to minutes from the meeting released Wednesday. At the meeting, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee agreed to hold its benchmark rate steady in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%. Members indicated that they expect three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of 2024.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/03/fed-minutes-december-2023-.html
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion...” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/december/
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Demand for workers fell to its lowest level in more than 2½ years in November while hirings and layoffs both moved lower, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed employment listings nudged lower to 8.79 million...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/03/jolts-november-2023-job-openings-nudged-lower-down-to-1point4-per-available-worker.html
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 4705.
-VIX rose about 6% to 14.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.900%.
-Drop from Top: 1.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 502-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new all-time-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom of the 25% decline was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21/23.)
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from -1 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +67 to +57.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
declined to HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before
the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish, but indicators and markets are weak and a decline of 3-4% more would be perfectly normal.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
I remain bullish, but indicators and markets are weak and a decline of 3-4% more would be perfectly normal.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
“The 12 days of Christmas is the period in Christian theology that marks the span between the birth of Christ and the coming of the Magi, the three wise men. It begins on December 25 (Christmas) and runs through January 6 (the Epiphany, sometimes also called Three Kings’ Day). The four weeks preceding Christmas are collectively known as Advent, which begins four Sundays before Christmas and ends on December 24.” From...
https://www.vox.com/21796404/12-days-of-christmas-explained
