“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"He has no business being president of the United
States," McQuaid said. "He’s a dangerous man and he has a lot of
sycophants, and he has a party which looks at the world today in the political
landscape and has determined that they must say nice things about him or
they’re not going to get elected." - Joe McQuaid — the publisher of
Manchester, New Hampshire's Union Leader (a conservative) newspaper
REPUBLICANS SPLIT (msn.com)
“A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has unveiled that roughly half of Republicans would withhold their support for former President Donald Trump if he were convicted of a felony, highlighting the potential hurdles his legal issues may pose to his 2024 presidential bid... Among Republicans, 45% indicated they would not vote for him, while 35% would. The remainder expressed uncertainty. Moreover, when asked if they would vote for Trump if he were “currently serving time in prison,” 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who would.” – From...
Survey Reveals Split Among Republicans Regarding Support for Trump Amid Legal Troubles (msn.com)
My cmt: 28% would vote for Trump if he were serving time? ...Proving once and for all that 28% of Republicans are complete idiots...and I am a conservative. I voted for Trump last time – never again!
TRUMP COULD BE FOUND GUILTY (Newsweek via msn.com)
“Joe Tacopina, an attorney who recently withdrew from representing Donald Trump in two cases, has said it is ‘absolutely’ possible that the former president could be convicted. Tacopina withdrew from the New York criminal case charging Trump with falsifying business records in connection to hush money payments made to a porn actress, as well as a separate appeal of the verdict in a lawsuit brought by columnist E. Jean Carroll. Trump also faces three other criminal prosecutions, including a federal case charging him with working to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the run-up to the violent riot at the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021. Another federal criminal case also brought by special counsel Jack Smith charges Trump with illegally hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and obstructing government efforts to get them back. He is also charged in Georgia over efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.” Story at...
Donald Trump Could 'Absolutely' Be Convicted, His Former Lawyer Says (msn.com)
Mt cmt: ...and people want him to be our next President? - but they are not Deplorables; they are Gullibles.
“The election risks are sitting in plain sight. Mr. Trump
faces 91 felony charges in four different indictments. You can think the
indictments are politically motivated and an awful precedent, as these columns
have argued. But they exist, and amid the legal battling a jury could convict
Mr. Trump by the summer... The...question in our view is whether Mr. Trump can
deliver the policy and political victories that GOP voters want. There are many
reasons to think he can’t. Start with the fact that Mr. Trump would be an
immediate lame duck.” – WSJ Editorial Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-2024-republican-choice-trump-biden-8cb7553e
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“’The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,’ said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. ‘Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.’” – Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4850.
-VIX slipped about 0.8% to 13.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.107
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY – SOLD 1/17/2023. I’ll probably replace it with IBB (Biotech ETF) when it looks like this pullback is over.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them?
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Monday. 6.3% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That’s better than the 4% we saw Friday and it indicates a slight broadening out of the rally. We also noted that the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE improved to 51%, a good number. It had been as low as 45.8% 2-weeks ago during the minor pullback we have been following.
On that subject, it is now appears that the pullback is
over. There was a big jump in the
Summary of Indicators (Friday Rundown) on Monday and my Basket of Market
Internals also improved to Buy. Of course, this was expected to be just a minor
pullback and we’ll see another minor pullback most likely develop in a few weeks.
Bollinger Bands are already “overbought.”
The regular cast of the CNBC “Fast Money” show was
cautious to bearish, Monday. That is
usually a bullish sign. Remember that only one of the CNBC regulars, Jim
Lebenthal, agreed with us back in October 2022 that the bottom was in and it
was time to buy. (The S&P 500 was down 25% at the time.)
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -3 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -59 to
-52. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
The Pullback appears to be over. I remain bullish, and since I think the pullback ended, I added Salesforce (CRM) and UWM (leveraged 2x Russell 2000). I’ll try to be nimble with UWM and sell it if we see indicators deteriorate.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs sooner rather than later.
I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has unveiled that roughly half of Republicans would withhold their support for former President Donald Trump if he were convicted of a felony, highlighting the potential hurdles his legal issues may pose to his 2024 presidential bid... Among Republicans, 45% indicated they would not vote for him, while 35% would. The remainder expressed uncertainty. Moreover, when asked if they would vote for Trump if he were “currently serving time in prison,” 52% of Republicans said they would not, compared to 28% who would.” – From...
Survey Reveals Split Among Republicans Regarding Support for Trump Amid Legal Troubles (msn.com)
My cmt: 28% would vote for Trump if he were serving time? ...Proving once and for all that 28% of Republicans are complete idiots...and I am a conservative. I voted for Trump last time – never again!
“Joe Tacopina, an attorney who recently withdrew from representing Donald Trump in two cases, has said it is ‘absolutely’ possible that the former president could be convicted. Tacopina withdrew from the New York criminal case charging Trump with falsifying business records in connection to hush money payments made to a porn actress, as well as a separate appeal of the verdict in a lawsuit brought by columnist E. Jean Carroll. Trump also faces three other criminal prosecutions, including a federal case charging him with working to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the run-up to the violent riot at the U.S. Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021. Another federal criminal case also brought by special counsel Jack Smith charges Trump with illegally hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and obstructing government efforts to get them back. He is also charged in Georgia over efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss in the state.” Story at...
Donald Trump Could 'Absolutely' Be Convicted, His Former Lawyer Says (msn.com)
Mt cmt: ...and people want him to be our next President? - but they are not Deplorables; they are Gullibles.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-2024-republican-choice-trump-biden-8cb7553e
“’The US LEI fell slightly in December, continuing to signal underlying weakness in the US economy,’ said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. ‘Despite the overall decline, six out of ten leading indicators made positive contributions to the LEI in December. Nonetheless, these improvements were more than offset by weak conditions in manufacturing, the high interest-rate environment, and low consumer confidence. As the magnitude of monthly declines has lessened, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates have turned upward but remain negative, continuing to signal the risk of recession ahead. Overall, we expect GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024 but begin to recover late in the year.’” – Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4850.
-VIX slipped about 0.8% to 13.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.107
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLY – SOLD 1/17/2023. I’ll probably replace it with IBB (Biotech ETF) when it looks like this pullback is over.
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them?
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Monday. 6.3% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That’s better than the 4% we saw Friday and it indicates a slight broadening out of the rally. We also noted that the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE improved to 51%, a good number. It had been as low as 45.8% 2-weeks ago during the minor pullback we have been following.
The Pullback appears to be over. I remain bullish, and since I think the pullback ended, I added Salesforce (CRM) and UWM (leveraged 2x Russell 2000). I’ll try to be nimble with UWM and sell it if we see indicators deteriorate.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
