GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“Layoffs remained subdued through mid-January, despite
the slowing labor market. Weekly filings for unemployment benefits—a proxy for
layoffs—ticked up 25,000 to 214,000 last week but were still low by historical
standards.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-01-25-2024/card/jobless-claims-signal-labor-market-holding-up-in-january-K7jjAXrzNCg8tNY8dFCH
DURABLE ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods were
unexpectedly unchanged in December amid a slump in transportation equipment,
but demand elsewhere held up... Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
durable goods orders would rise 1.1%. Orders increased 4.4% on a year-over-year
basis in December.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-unchanged-december-140118485.html
GDP-ADV (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy grew at a faster rate than expected in
the fourth quarter, capping off a year many
expected to end in recession with one final economic surprise. The
Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of fourth quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed
the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% during the period...”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-33-annual-pace-in-fourth-quarter-faster-than-expected-133828802.html
NEW HOME SALES (Housingwire)
“Sales of new single‐family houses in December
2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000...This is 8.0 percent
(±24.2 percent)* above the
revised November rate of 615,000 and is 4.4 percent (±20.6 percent)* above the
December 2022 estimate of 636,000.” Story at...
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/2023-new-home-sales-helped-the-economy-avoid-a-recession/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 4894.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.120
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor
for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects
earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in
sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of
revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found
Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I forgot to mention that Wednesday, unchanged volume was
very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests
investor confusion at market turning points. Indications are improving, so if
this is a turning point, I’d have to assume it is confirmation of the
correction-over signs we’ve seen for the recent, small 3% pullback. That’s my
guess; “high-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often
wrong, and like yesterday, sometimes hard to interpret.
I got a double whammy today (Thursday) with continued
weakness in Boeing and poor guidance from Intel – both were down a lot – ouch! I’ll see what happens with Intel tomorrow. It
keeps getting worse for Boeing and continuing weakness would not be a surprise.
The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Tuesday
and 4.3% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s an OK number.
I’ll continue to watch this stat since it can be an early warning for the
markets.
RSI is now overbought, but today, Bollinger Bands were
not. Still, top-indicators are not far
from signaling another short-term top and markets could come under some
pressure, but I don’t expect anything big. On the other hand, most indicators
are looking much more bullish. We’ll see
that Friday when I do the Friday Summary of Indicators. There have been 6
consecutive days up so the S&P 500 is due for a down day.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +1 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -47 to -38.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good
top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs sooner rather than later.
I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
